UK By-Election Offers Clues for Australia's PM on Combating Populism

If Anthony Albanese is looking for a blueprint to combat One Nation, the results of a by-election on the other side of the world this week may hold some clues.

Like Australia, the United Kingdom's political status quo has been up-ended by a populist, right-wing party enjoying a surge in support.

On Thursday however, voters in a working-class constituency in north-west England made a statement when they delivered Andy Burnham, the candidate for Britain's deeply unpopular Labour government, a crushing victory.

Reform UK, a rising anti-establishment force that has dominated national opinion polls for months and shares multiple similarities with One Nation, was a distant second.

Notwithstanding the significant differences between the politics of Britain and Australia, and the incomparable systems of how people cast their ballots, some experts believe analysing the Makerfield by-election could be of some use to Albanese and his team.

Although, the results that were so encouraging for the UK's ruling Labour Party on one hand, may hold ominous signs on the other.

In some ways, this by-election was a sideshow to the real soap opera that has engulfed Britain's government this year.

Many people expect Burnham — a long-time politician who has most recently served as the hugely popular mayor of Manchester — to soon become the UK's prime minister. More on that later.

Early in the campaign, Reform UK was considered a strong chance to win Makerfield, despite the constituency being among Britain's safest Labour strongholds.

The party's candidate, local councillor and plumber Robert Kenyon, was weighed down by a string of controversies, many of which were linked to historical posts he made on social media.

"I'm sexist, sorry but I am," one from the 2010s read.

If not for those, his unpolished style could have been a strength. But up against Burnham — a renowned master communicator — Kenyon too often stood out for the wrong reasons.

Reform UK, formed in 2018, campaigns on similar issues to One Nation, and blames immigration for causing many of Britain's problems.

Like Pauline Hanson, the party's leader, Nigel Farage, has been involved in politics for decades. He rose to particular prominence during the 2016 Brexit referendum and is considered among the chief architects of the UK's decision to leave the European Union.

Farage, like Hanson, styles himself as a champion of the people and fiercely patriotic, despite regularly talking his own country down.

Reform UK has only eight MPs in Britain's lower house of parliament, but opinion polls now consistently show it is the top choice for many voters, like One Nation has become Down Under.

Despite the fact national elections are not due in Australia until 2028, and the UK a year later, these right-wing populist parties are positioning themselves as ready to govern

Farage and Reform should have had all the momentum in Makerfield, so why did Labour win? And could Albanese learn something?

UK by-election had 'unique dynamic'

Burnham focused on local issues when speaking to voters in Makerfield, particularly the rising cost of living.

While Reform UK was also having that conversation, Farage and his candidate, Kenyon, attempted to inject immigration into the campaign too.

Experts say Burnham's refusal to take the bait worked for him.

Aurelien Mondon, a politics professor at the University of Bath, says mainstream political parties routinely make the mistake of "playing the far-right on their turf".

"They often paint parties like One Nation and Reform UK as a threat, but they also give credence to these moral panics that the far-right push, things like race tensions, transgender rights, Islam or free speech, just by talking about them," he said.

"Talking about these issues, even if it is to disagree, normalises them. It's a vicious cycle that emboldens the far-right."

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In Australia, Albanese is taking a similar approach at a national level to combating the rise in One Nation's popularity.

With just under two years remaining in his government's term, the PM is playing a longer game, and hoping his economic plan woos voters back at the next election.

We will have to wait and see if it all works out. Right now, Hanson's attack lines on immigration and multiculturalism, amongst other policies, appear to be gaining traction in many parts of the country.

Albanese may take a little comfort in Burnham's victory, given their strategies of staying on message and refusing to be drawn into their far-right opponents' talking points align.

But analysts contend there is a significant reason the Makerfield result does not mean the UK's Labour government is turning the electoral tide against right-wing populism.

And it could be something to worry Australia's PM too.

Burnham was a high-profile candidate, who was considered so personally popular in certain parts of England he has been dubbed the "King of the North".

He spent almost 16 years as an MP, was a minister in Gordon Brown's Labour government, and even stood unsuccessfully for the party's leadership in 2015, before retiring from national politics two years later.

Burnham has made it clear he plans to challenge Britain's beleaguered PM, Sir Keir Starmer, for his job after re-entering parliament.

"This by-election had a unique dynamic. It lacked the usual scenario of a ruling party candidate versus the opposition, because Burnham is in fact seeking to replace the prime minister," said Stijn van Kessel, a professor of comparative politics at the Queen Mary University of London.

"In that way, Burnham was not a typical establishment candidate even though he is an experienced politician who is running for the party that is in power."

In Makerfield the "Burnham factor" was enough to get people to vote Labour, as this constituency has for the past 120 years.

However, it is widely accepted the government would have lost the by-election to Reform UK if it had run almost any other candidate.

In that way, the result could be more of an aberration, rather than a fool-proof plan on how to defeat the far right, whether it's in the UK or further afield.

The fact that Burnham now plans to replace his boss, is probably not something Albanese wants to encourage his own colleagues in Australia to replicate.