UK political volatility tests renewed debate over closer EU ties after Starmer resignation

The Carrousel de St Pierre, near the Sacre Coeur Church in Paris, is a tourist favourite. With its painted golden-maned horses and French chanson music, it offers a romantic image of the city. But its circular motion also evokes the repeated turns of the UK's post-Brexit politics.

The article marks 10 years since the UK voted to leave the European Union. From an EU perspective, Britain quickly entered a period of political crisis, with years of domestic division and repeated disputes over its future relationship with Brussels.

The issue has returned to the UK political agenda after Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation on Monday. The Labour government had launched new talks with the EU, aiming to reduce post-Brexit red tape and support Britain's struggling economy. Brussels assumes the negotiations will continue under Starmer's successor, although it said on Monday that it was reviewing whether to proceed with a summit planned with the Starmer government for late July.

EU partners were shocked after the Brexit vote by what they saw as Britain's social and political implosion. The UK parliament had traditionally been regarded in Brussels as one of the EU's most stable institutions. Since then, European officials say they have become used to volatility in UK politics. France and Germany are also facing significant domestic political turbulence.

Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator during years of difficult Brexit talks, remains active in French politics. He is a centre-right MP, was briefly prime minister two years ago and is expected to enter the upcoming French presidential race.

Barnier said the EU must work with whichever leader the UK presents. "We have to deal with this situation and respect it," he said. There will be a new UK prime minister and the EU will work with them, he added, recalling that during the Brexit negotiations he faced four different UK negotiators in four years. That was also a situation of instability, he said, but the EU dealt with it.

During the Brexit negotiations, Barnier became known for a coffee mug carrying the phrase: Keep Calm and Carry on Negotiating. The slogan played on the British wartime phrase Keep Calm and Carry On, created in 1939 as a government morale poster.

Barnier was also known for resisting British demands for a special deal. Similar arguments are now returning. The Labour government sought closer ties with parts of the EU single market, while avoiding large payments to Brussels and rejecting free movement of EU workers to the UK, where immigration remains politically contentious.

Brussels previously described that approach as "cherry-picking" and said it would not accept it. The EU position has been that the UK could not leave the club while keeping its preferred benefits.

The broader international context has changed. The United States has become unpredictable and at times aggressive toward presumed allies under Donald Trump. Russia is waging a kinetic war in Ukraine and a hybrid war through disinformation, sabotage and other activities across much of Europe. China also remains part of the strategic calculation.

The EU also faces pressure from within. Mainstream European leaders believe eurosceptic parties in several countries are gaining strength at a time when the bloc is under external pressure.

The UK remains Europe's second-largest economy and a military power, despite its problems. Closer defence ties with the EU have already been developing. The question is whether economic ties can also be strengthened.

Speaking shortly before Starmer's resignation, Barnier said the EU "sincerely welcomed" any UK request for closer relations. He said he still regarded the British decision to leave the single market as "lose-lose" for both sides. But he insisted the single market remains the EU's most important asset and should not be compromised for a special arrangement with the UK.

"We are in a much more dangerous, unstable, fragile world, and we need to keep our assets and keep our unity. This is the point for us. There is no aggression, no spirit of revenge with the UK, but the UK must understand that it will not be possible to unravel or to fragilise the single market... We can't take the risk."

Barnier also warned about the threat from eurosceptic parties inside the EU. He drew parallels with Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK's Reform party and a former MEP who campaigned for Britain to leave the bloc.

Barnier's concern, shared by others in EU circles, is that if Brussels weakens its rules or offers attractive economic deals to non-member countries such as the UK, it could strengthen parties calling for their own countries to leave the EU or to weaken common EU rules and regulations.

Fabrice Leggeri, an MEP for Marine Le Pen's hard right National Rally party, sees political opportunity. Speaking at the European Parliament in Brussels, he said: "We are confident that 2027 is going to be a very important year, a turning point, if we win the elections in France."

Opinion polls suggest Le Pen's eurosceptic party is better placed than ever to win the French presidency. The French president has major influence over foreign policy and EU affairs, and a National Rally victory could have a major effect on Brussels.

Leggeri said the National Rally wants the EU to be much tougher on non-EU migration and to scale back ambitious green regulations, which he called "nonsense" and damaging to European industry. The party wants to reduce France's contributions to the EU budget and has long opposed sending military aid to Ukraine.

The year 2027 will bring important elections across Europe. Leggeri and the National Rally hope similar eurosceptic parties will win majorities or influential roles in coalition governments in Italy, Spain, Poland and France. He said those parties could change the EU from within.

Even France alone could have significant influence. The article points to how Hungary's heavily eurosceptic former prime minister, Viktor Orban, was able to freeze and frustrate common EU decisions.

"We are preparing [for] the future," Mr Leggeri said. "I had the honor to accompany Mr Bardella to London, when he met Mr Farage, before Christmas. If Mr Farage becomes the next British prime minister, and if Rassemblement National is going to rule France next year, I can tell you that I see a lot of possible cooperation."

Armida van Rij from the Centre for European Reform pointed to renewed efforts by European countries seeking to join the EU, especially Ukraine. At the same time, nationalist eurosceptic parties remain popular inside existing member states, while leaders such as Germany's Merz, France's Macron and Poland's Tusk appear weakened.

Many Europeans consider the EU imperfect, but after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, they see strength in remaining together. Eurosceptic parties including France's National Rally, Germany's AfD and Austria's Freedom Party have adjusted their messages to appeal to a wider range of voters.

Barnier said Brexit as a topic is now history. But the growing potential power of eurosceptics inside the EU is a major concern in Brussels.