Ukraine Claims Russia Plans Autumn Mobilization of 500,000 Personnel

Russia is preparing to mobilise 500,000 personnel in the coming autumn, with plans to send some conscripts to the eastern front within weeks of training, a Ukrainian official said on Saturday. Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, said the Russian military command intends to use the mobilised forces to address immediate personnel shortages and to establish a new operational direction. "Russia is preparing a mobilisation of 500,000 people for the autumn. Some are planned to be thrown into battle in the first two weeks to plug holes in the East, while others will be trained for at least a month for the potential opening of a new front direction. This is the plan of the Russian Federation," Kovalenko wrote on Telegram. He added that Russian officials, including first deputy chief of staff Sergei Kiriyenko and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, have assured the leadership that the mobilization will secure a military advantage.

Recruitment shortfalls and election concerns

The warning follows assessments by Ukrainian military intelligence that Moscow has avoided the topic of mobilisation to mitigate domestic political risks ahead of the autumn State Duma elections. Andriy Chernyak, an officer with Ukraine's Military Intelligence, said the Russian government actively suppresses public discussion of mobilization. "The Kremlin will now avoid the topic of mobilization as much as possible and say that it will not happen because they are preparing for the elections," Chernyak said, adding that the probability of mobilization remains high post-election. Chernyak emphasised that Russia has the infrastructure to handle a large influx of personnel. "They have enough training centers, they have enough existing training grounds. And mobilization is needed to strengthen those areas that already exist," he said.

Russia falls short of recruitment targets

The anticipated mobilisation push correlates with reported shortfalls in Russia's contract military recruitment. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reported that only 195,000 military contracts were signed in Russia, falling short of the 204,500 target. The agency also estimated Russian personnel losses in 2026 at 196,700, including approximately 115,300 "irretrievable" losses. Regarding potential new axes of attack, Chernyak said Ukrainian intelligence currently observes no strike groups forming in Belarus. While approximately 50,000 Belarusian personnel and Russian support units are stationed there, there is no immediate indication of an offensive buildup, though forces could be transferred within weeks.