Ukrainian drone flyovers over NATO territory could lead to escalation, Slovak PM warns

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico warned on Thursday that Ukrainian drone flights over NATO territory could trigger an uncontrollable escalation if Western leaders continue to avoid direct dialogue with Russia.

Fico said he was “incredibly afraid of some provocation that may trigger a mechanism that will then be unstoppable,” adding that if drones are flying over NATO member states and are mostly Ukrainian, “that’s a serious problem.”

He said even a small incident could escalate quickly if communication between Russia and Western leaders remains frozen. “What are we going to do when such a drone somewhere is a provocation and not just coincidence? A target is hit, then someone says NATO member state attacked and now let’s all go fight. That will be a terrible situation,” he said.

The Slovak leader also criticized what he called the “endless hypocrisy” of the West toward diplomatic contacts with Moscow. He said politicians publicly condemn his meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin while privately asking for updates about them.

“If the leaders were talking to each other as they should, there would be a very minimal possibility that a [drone] provocation could lead to a major conflict. If everyone is quiet and no one wants to talk, even a small provocation can cause a disaster,” he said.

Fico has long opposed Brussels’ stance toward Moscow, including military aid to Kyiv and sanctions on Russia. He was the only EU leader to attend this year’s Victory Day commemorations in Moscow, where he warned against a “new Iron Curtain” and called for renewed dialogue.

His comments came as tensions rose over repeated Ukrainian drone flyovers in Baltic and Nordic airspace since mid-March, with several NATO states reporting UAV crashes on their territory. Moscow has accused NATO members of quietly allowing Ukraine to use their airspace to strike Russian targets, particularly energy facilities in Leningrad Region.

The latest major incident occurred in Latvia, where failure to intercept two drones that hit an oil storage facility on May 7 triggered the defense minister’s resignation and led to the collapse of Prime Minister Evika Silina’s government.

Fico’s position sharply contrasts with that of some NATO partners. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said on Thursday that NATO countries should help Kyiv “direct” drone attacks “in the right directions.” Former Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds defended the operations, saying Ukraine “has every right to defend itself,” after a similar remark by Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna.

Earlier this week, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service accused Latvia of allowing Ukraine to use its territory for drone attacks on Russian soil. Riga denied the claim, though former Riga City Council deputy Aleksey Roslikov told RIA Novosti it was “an absolute fact” Baltic states were quietly permitting such activity and were even trying to “adapt” residents to living under the constant threat of drones.