US Air Campaign Against Iran Losing Momentum, Escalation Needed for Decisive Shift
Quick Look
- The US air campaign against Iran is losing momentum and unlikely to achieve a decisive shift without significant escalation, including potential ground forces, according to Politico.
- Experts suggest the current cycle of attacks and counter-attacks will continue without a clear strategy, despite President Trump's threats.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The United States has been conducting airstrikes against Iran for nearly two weeks after a ceasefire collapsed over alleged Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iranian infrastructure in response to future attacks.
WASHINGTON, July 23. /TASS/. The US air campaign against Iran is running out of momentum, and the conflict is unlikely to shift decisively without a major escalation, including the deployment of ground forces, Politico reported, citing experts and sources.
The news outlet noted that the United States has been conducting airstrikes against Iran for nearly two weeks after the latest ceasefire collapsed over alleged Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the United States would destroy one bridge or one power plant in Iran in response to every attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.
"Unless the administration is willing to sharply up the ante -- perhaps by substantially expanding the list of acceptable targets or even deploying ground forces -- the current cycle of attack and counter-attack will likely continue without a clear endgame or offramp from the White House," the news outlet wrote.
A retired senior US military officer said on the condition of anonymity that the US military only gets mired in protracted conflicts when it's wishy-washy about what it's willing to do.
"If you don’t have the threat of force and are willing to follow it up, you’re not going to convince the enemy of anything," the source said.
Politico said no signs of a US military buildup in the region have emerged that would indicate preparations for a ground operation. The number of US troops and military assets in the region has remained roughly unchanged since the campaign began in February. An unnamed US official told the news outlet that about 50,000 US troops are currently deployed in and around the conflict zone.
Retired US Air Force Judge Advocate Rachel VanLandingham said that expanding or intensifying strikes against Iran's civilian infrastructure would not change Tehran's policy.
"Even if these strikes that are expanding to greater numbers of civilian infrastructure targets are lawful, they’re ineffective," she said.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The current cycle of attack and counter-attack will likely continue without a clear endgame or offramp.
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- What specific targets would constitute 'civilian infrastructure' for US strikes?
- What is the White House's long-term strategy for the conflict?
- What are Iran's specific demands or conditions for de-escalation?
