US inflation hits 3-year high amid Iran conflict; markets jittery

Hello, this is Anniek Bao writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC's Daily Open.

It's not often a president cheers a three-year high in the inflation rate, but this is where we are.

U.S. consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 4.2% in May, to which Trump responded: "I love the inflation," while predicting that prices will fall "like a rock" once the war with Iran ends.

That war, however, has entered a second day of renewed hostilities, with Washington and Tehran now fighting over the narrative on shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as they trade strikes.

The chain of consequences becomes clear: Hormuz is driving oil, oil is driving inflation, and inflation is now the first real test for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. But that might just be music to Warsh's ears.

Markets find themselves under a stress test, weighing a war that's "very complete" against strikes that keep coming. Against that backdrop, SpaceX's rocket of an IPO is soon to launch into the middle of it.

The U.S. began striking multiple targets in Iran overnight, with the Central Command describing the strikes as a response to Iran's "unwarranted and continued aggression," putting fresh strain on an already brittle ceasefire.

Tensions have escalated following Washington's retaliatory strikes against Iran after a U.S. Apache helicopter was downed near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said Wednesday the U.S. would hit Iran "hard again today," while pressing Tehran to sign a deal he says must be "meaningful."

The U.S. president also disclosed a secret operation he said he ordered last month, in which the military helped 200 commercial ships and more than 100 million barrels of oil transit Hormuz. The claim is not entirely at odds with data: JPMorgan estimated last week that around 2 million barrels per day may be moving through on tankers with transponders switched off.

While Iran's military command has ordered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels as tensions flare up, the U.S. CENTCOM sought to state the opposite, claiming in a X post that "commercial ships are continuing to transit in and out of the Strait of Hormuz tonight."

U.S. crude oil futures for July rose 2.94% to $92.68 per barrel Thursday. Brent futures, the international benchmark, for August delivery gained 2.52% to $95.45 per barrel.

The May CPI report — the one that Trump apparently loves and the first since Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair — showed energy costs rippling through the economy, with market odds overwhelmingly favoring the Fed to hold its short-term rate steady.

Amid rising energy prices and hot inflation, Wall Street stumbled Wednesday, with chip stocks also selling off. The Dow shed more than 900 points. Stock futures slipped overnight, with Oracle down more than 10% in extended trading after announcing plans to raise an additional $20 billion for its AI buildout.

On the AI debate, Thoma Bravo founder Orlando Bravo struck a more optimistic tone, saying the "SaaSpocalypse" is over and AI would be an enormous tailwind for companies. Private credit managers, including at Ares and Man Group, also see a reckoning rather than a wipeout.

Markets are also jittery with SpaceX's IPO slated for this week, which is expected to be the largest in history — and the first of three mega AI listings, with OpenAI and Anthropic both having filed confidentially.

— Anniek Bao