US-Iran conflict's next phase could be most tense, expert says
Quick Look
- The next phase of the US-Iran conflict may be the most tense due to a lack of agreement on key issues, despite a de facto ceasefire during the Hajj pilgrimage.
- Experts predict continued "hybrid ceasefire" with high alert in the Persian Gulf.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The US-Iran conflict is entering a new phase following the Hajj pilgrimage, a period of seasonal pause. Despite a de facto ceasefire, key issues remain unresolved, leading to predictions of increased tension.
MOSCOW, June 2. /TASS/. The next phase of the US-Iran conflict may be the most tense one because although the parties have consistently adhered to a ceasefire, they failed to reach an agreement on key issues, Marat Zembatov, director of the Center of Interdisciplinary Research at the Higher School of Economics’ Institute for Public Administration and Governance, wrote in an op-ed for the TASS website.
According to him, the parties to the conflict "have obtained greater room for maneuver" following a pause for the season of Hajj, the annual Islamic pilgrimage that fell in late May this year.
"However, this freedom does not mean an automatic escalation of violence. Saudi Arabia and other [Gulf] monarchies will seek to navigate the situation towards more predictability because the conflict has exposed risks for vulnerable economies. <...> As for Iran and the US, they will insist more on their negotiation demands. <...> This is exactly why the coming phase will be the most tense one: the parties have already implemented their obligations in terms of regional security during Hajj but have not yet created a new stable security structure," the expert noted.
In Zembatov’s view, a "hybrid ceasefire" will persist in the Persian Gulf area in the coming weeks, with some restrictions lifted but a high state of alert still maintained.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The next phase of the US-Iran conflict will be the most tense.
Very likely · Short term
A 'hybrid ceasefire' will persist in the Persian Gulf area.
Likely · Within weeks
Open Questions
- What are the specific key issues that remain unresolved between the US and Iran?
- What new demands will the US and Iran insist on?
- What specific measures will Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies take to navigate the situation?
- What does 'hybrid ceasefire' entail in practical terms for the Persian Gulf?
