US Job Growth Rises in August Amid Persistent Inflation and Fed Uncertainty

The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, an uptick after a sluggish summer for the labor market.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, still down from its most recent peak of 4.5% last November, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Despite the relative stability of the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added to the economy has been fluctuating, going from 214,000 in March down to a 21,000 gain in July and then back up in August.

Figures for job growth in June and July were both revised up. After revisions, job growth in June was 31,000 jobs, up from an initial 20,000, and July was revised up by 44,000 jobs, from an initially reported loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000.

Economists had predicted gains would be at least 50,000 new jobs. Earlier in the week, the payroll firm ADP reported private companies added 38,000 jobs in August, lower than initial expectations and the lowest month for new jobs since January. Meanwhile, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that layoffs have been going down and are 41% lower than cuts that were announced by this time last year.

Economists have pointed out that the labor market appears to be stalled in a “slow hire, slow fire” state, with neither growth nor contractions in jobs.

A separate BLS report from earlier this week showed job openings and layoffs had changed little in July. The number of people quitting their jobs also remained flat, suggesting workers are feeling less confident about their ability to find another job.

For many Americans feeling frustrated about the economy, a lackluster job market feels especially painful when paired with rising prices. US inflation has increased significantly since the start of the war with Iran, with the annual inflation rate going from 2.4% in February to 3.4% in July. In May, price increases reached 4.2%, the highest rate since 2023.

In recent weeks, persistent inflation has started to have a domino effect in the US economy after a sell-off in the US bond market. Yields for US Treasury bonds have been going up since the start of the Iran war, suggesting that investors are concerned about the long-term health of the economy. Higher yields could push up the price of loans, including mortgages, car loans and the interest rate on student debt, making things even more costly for Americans.

Economists are expecting at least one interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve before the end of the year. Higher interest rates could help lower inflation, but at the risk of destabilizing the labor market.

Last week, Kevin Warsh, the Fed chair, gave his debut speech at the Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he said the Fed was still committed to getting inflation down to its 2% target rate, but held off on making any firm suggestions on the central bank’s next move.

“We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” he said. “Otherwise, we have work to do.”

Donald Trump on Friday celebrated the new job figures and threatened to “stop trading with countries with which we have a deficit” if the Fed doesn’t lower interest rates.

“A STRONG COUNTRY MEANS A LOWER INTEREST RATE –IT’S A BETTER CREDIT… Very simple!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We should have the LOWEST RATE of any country in the World, like ‘the old days’.”