US Military Capability for Gulf Blockade Assessed

The US military possesses the capability to implement a blockade of vessels moving in and out of the Gulf. The question remains about the purpose and potential consequences of such an action.

Retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery stated in an interview that a blockade is "doable" and carries less risk than alternatives like forcibly pushing back Iranian vessels or escorting convoys through the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that options previously floated by President Trump, such as seizing Kharg Island or militarily escorting convoys, would have been hazardous and potentially costly due to Iranian missiles, drones, fast boats, and the possibility of mines.

A blockade, by contrast, would allow US warships to operate from a safer distance in the Gulf of Oman, tracking and interdicting vessels from Iranian ports. Admiral Montgomery highlighted that this approach is less risky than operating within the confined space of the Strait of Hormuz.

The US Navy has the necessary assets, including special forces, helicopters, and fast boats, to conduct such an operation. Recent blockades of Venezuela and Cuba, as well as the seizure of the Russian oil tanker Marinera in the North Atlantic, demonstrate this capability.

US Central Command (Centcom) has indicated that the blockade would be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, with no interference for vessels using non-Iranian ports.

The strategic logic behind a blockade appears to be the disruption of Iran's petrochemical exports, which have generated billions of dollars since the war began, while simultaneously hindering other Gulf countries' hydrocarbon exports. A successful blockade could deprive the Iranian regime of crucial revenue and further weaken its economy.

However, Iran, which has demonstrated resilience against over a month of attacks, may believe it can withstand another measure. The regime might also anticipate that a blockade would further increase oil prices, potentially leading Gulf states to pressure the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

David Satterfield, a former US special envoy for Middle East humanitarian affairs, suggested that Iran believes it can endure more pain for a longer period than its adversaries, anticipating that the US will feel the impact of rising oil prices and that Gulf states will eventually advocate for the Strait's reopening.

Shipping experts are closely monitoring vessel traffic from Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz to assess the blockade's impact. Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd's List, observed a flurry of vessel activity in the 48 hours preceding Trump's announcement, indicating a rush to move traffic before potential interdictions.

With very little traffic currently observed, it may take time to see if the US Navy will intercept vessels sailing in or out of Iranian ports.