US officials say hundreds of IRGC officers operating in Yemen to support Houthi operations targeting Bab al-Mandab Strait
Quick Look
US officials believe hundreds of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers are operating in Yemen alongside Houthi forces to coordinate operations aimed at shutting the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical shipping route, as the Houthis seize Mokha and advance toward the Hanish Islands amid existing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz from US-Iran tensions.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Houthis have expanded their control along Yemen's Red Sea coast, seizing Mokha and advancing toward the Hanish Islands. Simultaneously, the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted by US-Iran tensions involving tanker attacks and threats to commercial vessels. Bab al-Mandab is a vital shipping route connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal.
US officials believe hundreds of officers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), are currently operating in Yemen alongside the Iran-backed Houthi movement, helping coordinate operations aimed ultimately at shutting the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, CNN reported, citing a US official.
The deployment comes as the Houthis have dramatically expanded their position along Yemen’s Red Sea coast.
On Thursday, the Houthis seized Mokha, a strategic port roughly 80 km from Bab al-Mandab, after days of fighting with Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces. Houthi forces have also moved toward the strategically important Hanish Islands, according to military sources cited by Reuters.
The developments raise the prospect of a second major maritime chokepoint being brought under pressure at the same time that the Strait of Hormuz is severely disrupted by the US-Iran war.
Bab al-Mandab connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and provides the maritime gateway to the Suez Canal.
Control or effective closure of the strait could force ships between Asia and Europe to take the much longer route around Africa.
The Houthis' capture of Mokha gives them a direct presence near one of the world's most important shipping corridors.
UN Yemen envoy Hans Grundberg warned that the advance represented a “new and more dangerous phase” in the conflict.
The timing is particularly serious because Hormuz is already compromised. Shipping through the Persian Gulf chokepoint has plunged amid US-Iran attacks on tankers and threats against commercial vessels.
The US assessment that hundreds of IRGC personnel are in Yemen would indicate a potentially significant escalation in Tehran's direct involvement.
Reuters reported separately that Yemeni government, Iranian and regional sources said the Houthi coastal offensive was being carried out with direct guidance from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Iran denies controlling the Houthis, while the group maintains that its military decisions are its own.
The distinction matters. Iran has long provided the Houthis with weapons, technology and military expertise, but a large-scale deployment of IRGC personnel would represent a much more direct Iranian role in operations threatening international shipping.
A simultaneous squeeze on Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab could create an unprecedented energy and shipping shock.
Hormuz is the principal export route for Gulf oil and gas, while Bab al-Mandab is critical for shipping between the Indian Ocean, Red Sea and Suez Canal.
With both routes under pressure, shipping companies could be forced into longer and more expensive journeys, while insurers raise war-risk premiums.
The immediate market reaction is already visible: Brent crude rose above $107 a barrel after the Houthi advance and growing fears over Saudi oil exports.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Brent crude prices will remain elevated or rise further if Houthi advances continue and IRGC involvement in Yemen is confirmed
Likely · Within weeks
Shipping companies will implement contingency plans for rerouting around Africa if Bab al-Mandab faces imminent closure
Very likely · Within days
The US will increase diplomatic or military pressure on Iran in response to the alleged IRGC deployment in Yemen
Possible · Within weeks
Open Questions
- What is the exact number and role of IRGC personnel reportedly operating in Yemen?
- How effective is IRGC guidance in Houthi coastal operations and targeting of shipping?
- What specific actions are being taken to threaten the Bab al-Mandab Strait?
- How is the US responding to the alleged IRGC deployment in Yemen?
