Western Australia faces critical aged care bed shortfall by 2030

Western Australia is racing towards a "substantial and time-critical shortfall" in residential aged care beds which it can do little to avoid.

That's the conclusion of an analysis of the state's aged care capacity, quietly released by the government last week.

Completed in March, it estimates WA will need between 1,600 and 2,700 additional aged care beds by 2030 — somewhere between 16 and 27 new facilities — to cope with its aging population.

That would come at an estimated cost of up to $1.8 billion — on top of the money required to keep existing facilities up and running — facilities the state government concedes are up to 98 per cent full.

But even that comes with a warning it may be too little, too late.

"Given the long lead times to completion of an aged care facility (often four to five years), the evidence indicates that WA faces a substantial and time-critical shortfall in residential aged care capacity," the report concluded.

The analysis noted residential aged care in particular was close to capacity, "with acute shortages in a number of areas of Greater Perth".

"Contributing factors include high local construction costs, workforce shortages and ongoing policy uncertainty, particularly on accommodation pricing and refundable accommodation deposits," the report reads.

It notes "poor" investment sentiment, given those factors, in addition to investment in aged care facilities in the state falling about 75 per cent since 2019-20.

What are the decision-makers saying?

Aged Care Minister Simone McGurk acknowledged the cost of building beds in WA as a particular challenge.

"It's been estimated across the country that the cost of a new aged care bed is about half a million dollars," Ms McGurk said.

"That can be well over $650,000 in Western Australia. So we have higher build costs."

The minister is trying to pressure the Albanese government into financially supporting its own local policy of a $100 million low interest loan scheme to support investment into expanded or new aged care facilities.

"We were disappointed to hear that the federal government wasn't putting additional money into that massive new build program that is needed if we are going to meet our residential care aged demands in the next five years, and then into the 2030s," she said.

"Current facilities in Western Australia, we estimate are 97 or 98 per cent full. So we need to build new facilities to meet the new demand going forward.

"We really need the federal government to lean into this space as well, just to help the aged care sector with their business plans."

Federal Aged Care Minister Sam Rae's office has been contacted for comment.