XRP Faces Uncertain Future as Clarity Act Stalls and Crypto Markets Await Fed Decision

The global macro backdrop is as unfavorable as it's been all year for crypto markets. New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, in only his second FOMC meeting, is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but CME FedWatch put hike odds near 38% as recently as last weekend—the highest of this cycle. Even a hawkish hold can rattle risk assets. Bitcoin is parked near $63,400–$64,000, well below its June highs around $80,000, and altcoins are taking the brunt. XRP, the cryptocurrency developed by the founders of payments company Ripple, had a moment of optimism this month that now feels like a distant memory. As Decrypt reported on July 21, the coin cautiously jumped 3.25% to $1.1485 when reports broke that President Donald Trump had agreed to the Clarity Act's long-stalled ethics provision, briefly nudging Senate passage odds on Polymarket to 43%. That lasted about a week. On Monday, the Senate formally shelved the Clarity Act to prioritize a Russia sanctions bill and federal nominations. The chamber's August recess begins around August 7—which means there is a thin frame for the bill to be approved this year. Miss that window, and the next opportunity might not come until 2027. For XRP, the stakes are concrete: The Clarity Act would codify its commodity classification into law, the legal bedrock that institutional custodians, banks, and ETF issuers need to feel comfortable building products around it. Standard Chartered's conditional $8 XRP target—contingent on full Senate passage plus $4 billion to $8 billion in new ETF inflows—stays theoretical without it. So things are not looking great for Clarity, or XRP. XRP price: What the charts say XRP is trading at $1.0641 and a roughly $65 billion market cap on Binance, with a 24-hour low of $1.0450 and a high of $1.0679. The token peaked near $3.40 in mid-2025 and has been in a sustained descending channel ever since, logging lower highs and lower lows for months. The Average Directional Index, or ADX, sits at 11.2—one of the weakest readings XRP has posted all summer. The ADX measures trend strength on a 0–100 scale, regardless of whether that trend is up or down. Think of it as measuring how much conviction the market has: anything below 25 signals no confirmed trend is in place, and sub-20 readings are associated with choppy, directionless markets where false breakouts and stop hunts are common. As Decrypt flagged on July 16, when the reading was 13.3, XRP has been stuck in exactly this trendless limbo for most of July. One mildly constructive signal: the directional indicator is starting to rotate from DI- (bearish dominance) toward DI+ (bullish pressure building). So there’s hopium somewhere in there. The Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs—which smooth out price action over time to reveal trend direction—confirm the big picture: the 50-day EMA is trading below the 200-day EMA in the formation traders call a death cross. When the shorter average sits below the longer one, it means the medium-term trajectory is still pointed downward, regardless of short-term bounces. This alignment has been in place since XRP's slide from the $3.65 all-time high, and there is no sign yet of the two averages starting to converge. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, reads 40.9. RSI is a momentum gauge on a 0–100 scale: above 70 is overbought, below 30 is oversold. At 40.9, XRP is in bearish territory—below the neutral 50 line—but not yet at the extreme levels that typically attract aggressive buyers looking for a floor. On the Fibonacci side (natural supports and resistances that appear during a trend) the current bearish leg runs from $1.1646 down to $1.0450. Below that price, the next Fib support is $1.0125, followed by $0.9711. What happens next Two events will define XRP's next directional move. If Fed Chair Warsh holds and signals a dovish tone—or hints at September cuts—crypto gets a relief pop, and XRP could test the Fibonacci golden zone between $1.10 and $1.12. If the statement reads hawkish or a dissenting vote appears, the sell-off has room to extend toward $1.01 and, below that, the $0.97 zone. The Clarity Act is the bigger, longer-term variable. The Senate's August recess starts August 7. If a floor vote doesn't materialize before then, XRP's primary institutional catalyst evaporates until at least late 2026—and possibly well beyond, given the midterm election calendar that follows. The technical setup argues for patience rather than urgency. A market this trendless—ADX at 11.2, Squeeze loaded with negative momentum, death cross intact—can compress for longer than most traders expect before resolving. The oversold indicators could produce a short-term bounce toward but without a macro catalyst or a legislative surprise, that bounce is more likely a selling opportunity than the start of a new trend.