Zelenskyy's Military Shake-Up: From Public Backlash to New Leadership

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been championed the world over for his wartime leadership, even at times being compared to Winston Churchill. But a decision to fire his popular, tech-savvy 35-year-old defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, last week baffled many.

There were reports Mr Fedorov was clashing with Ukraine's Soviet-era military chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. The younger man was fired.

It drew criticism from former military generals, Western allies and analysts who described the move as an ill-judged mistake, particularly at a time when Ukraine was making gains on the battlefield thanks largely to innovation.

The decision was also deeply unpopular with his own people. As Russia launched a blistering attack — one of its largest and most sustained ballistic missile barrages on Kyiv since the full-scale invasion began — Ukrainians in their thousands took to the streets calling for General Syrskyi to go.

The protests went on for around a week in Kyiv. "Frankly baffling", "a mistake" and "out of character" were just some of the adjectives former Commanding General of the US Army in Europe, Ben Hodges, used to describe the president's move.

"I think President Zelenskyy, who has done a Churchillian job thus far, perhaps has become overconfident in his own judgement," he said.

Mr Zelenskyy reasoned that his decision was necessary to resolve a paralysing internal conflict between the two men and that he could not have that during war. But that was not enough to quell the unrest.

He relented and changed course, ending several days of unrest by firing General Syrskyi, 60, on Tuesday.

Analysts argue the two men symbolised the generational divide that still fractures so much of Ukrainian society — the push and pull between its soviet past and its future ambitions to draw closer to the West.

Mr Fedorov, for many Ukrainians, was a beacon of hope who offered a smarter, tech-driven way of doing battle that saved precious lives and outsmarted a much larger adversary.

Mr Fedorov represented the battle that Ukraine had proved it could actually win — the race to use modern technology and innovation to fight a high-tech asymmetric war, not the war of attrition that Russia so desperately wants to keep Ukraine mired in.

The 35-year-old's track record included dramatically scaling up domestic drone production, negotiating with Elon Musk to shut down Starlink terminals used by Russian forces, and ramping up Ukraine's missile interception rates by implementing operational reviews.

It was a direct contrast to the Soviet-era model of fighting that still entangles the top brass of Ukraine's military, and which no longer washes with the public after four and a half years of war and hundreds of thousands of casualties.

It might have been palatable if there were no other way, but the grind-down strategy has become untenable in a world where drone warfare has shown there was a better way to do things.

"What's so frustrating about this happening right now is that they are on the path to victory," Mr Hodges said.

"I mean, they have figured it out, both with the long-range strikes against Russia's oil and gas infrastructure … and the second thing is with the mid-range strikes that are helping isolate Crimea.

Recent decisive victories for Ukraine have hit Russia where it hurts, impacting its ability to export the oil and gas necessary for keeping its war machine going.

The sustained attacks have also been politically damaging for the Kremlin, with Russia facing severe domestic fuel shortages marked by rationing and hours-long queues at petrol stations.

While not all, many of the battlefield gains were made using modern intelligence and drone technology, which many credit to the work of Mr Fedorov during his time as defence minister, including former Ukrainian defence minister advisor, Yuriy Sak.

"A lot of things happened on the front lines in the procurement system for the army, in the structural set-up of the army, which resulted and translated into some real efficient results on the battlefield," Mr Sak said.

"And, of course, we as Ukrainian people saw it with our own eyes and for the first time in two years we started to look at the situation with more hope and optimism.

"So, when Zelenskyy removed this hope, we got upset and people went to the streets because everybody wants this war to end.

"While Mr Fedorov never publicly expressed presidential ambitions, his political capital is growing."

A recent survey by the Kyiv Institute of International Sociology revealed public trust in Mr Fedorov surged from 38 per cent to 50 per cent in his six months as defence minister while trust for Mr Zelenskyy remained stable at between 61 and 62 per cent.

While not entertaining this as a reason, Mr Zelenskyy has removed a potential leadership rival before: his former military commander-in-chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who is now Ukraine's Ambassador to the United Kingdom.

Analysts say Mr Zelenskyy remains politically wounded by this whole affair both domestically and internationally.

His decision to replace General Syrskyi with General Mykhailo Drapatyi — a 43-year-old who is a bit of a legend inside Ukraine — came after several days of consultations with military top brass.

Described as someone who "hates the guts of the Russians", General Drapatyi became famous in 2014 when he drove a 13-ton armoured vehicle through pro-Russian barricades in Mariupol, a city that's now fully occupied by Moscow's forces.

"I've already seen reports in Russian propaganda media, they are very unhappy about the new appointment because they understand that this guy, General Drapatyi, is a battle-hardened commander and he's been in this war since 2014," he said.

"He hates the guts of the Russians sincerely, so that will motivate him to move fast," Mr Sak said.

General Drapatyi represents a newer generation of post-Soviet-era military leadership that has embraced a more modern approach to war fighting.

He is one of the architects of Ukraine's drone strategy, which has created a continuous kill zone at the frontline using attack and reconnaissance drones rather than purely relying on dour trench warfare.

The shift in tactic has slowed the advance of Russian troops in recent months, allowing the Ukrainians to regain territory for the first time in years.

So who takes over as Ukraine's defence minister? Evgeniy Khmara, said to be a close friend of Mykhailo Fedorov, is now acting in the position.

As one of the key planners of the highly successful 2025 "spider web" drone campaign on Russia's strategic air bases, which destroyed billions of dollars' worth of military planes, his appointment is a way to reassure the public that modern technology remains a priority.

Mr Zelenskyy has offered Mr Fedorov a high-profile position within his office, but it is not clear if he will accept anything other than his old job back.

In a post on social media, Mr Fedorov welcomed the appointment of General Drapatyi, describing it as a "breath of fresh air".

While thanking General Syrskyi for his historic battle victories, he concluded that Ukraine must "move even faster and write new chapters" when it comes to military strategy.

Ukraine's shake-up in the military establishment is said to have worried European leaders, who were unsettled by the upheaval for several reasons.

European nations are the main source of financial and military aid for Ukraine.

Ukraine is also critical for the continent's security. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine is now in its fifth year.

Analysts warn that the self-inflicted wound this saga has created has come at the worst possible time for Mr Zelenskyy and his country's efforts to repel Moscow's attacks.