Falling global energy prices, potentially due to a US-Iran agreement, could offer relief to Indian refiners and gas consumers. Brent crude has dropped to nearly $83/barrel, impacting India's 88% crude import dependence. LNG prices, though moderated, remain elevated.
Indian refinery executives anticipate oil prices dropping below $80/barrel within weeks if a US-Iran deal is signed Friday, reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This would end hostilities, lift the US naval blockade, and allow Iranian crude back to global markets.
Indian refiners have secured sufficient crude oil and LPG supplies to last through August and mid-July, respectively, by increasing purchases from suppliers like ADNOC and through spot tenders, amid ongoing Middle East energy supply disruptions.
Indian refiners are adjusting plants to process difficult crude grades and boost fuel output due to disruptions from the Iran conflict and potential Strait of Hormuz closure. Technology licensors like Lummus Technology are assisting in optimizing yields and adapting assets.
Indian refiners are shifting crude oil imports from the Middle East to Latin America and Africa due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Israeli-U.S. war. Despite reduced Russian oil imports in April, Russia remains India's top supplier, followed by the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Indian refiners increased oil imports from Venezuela, Brazil, Angola, and Nigeria due to Middle East supply disruptions caused by the Israel-US war. Russia remained a key supplier, though its share decreased. Overall imports were steady in April but down year-on-year.
Venezuela has become India's third-largest crude oil supplier in May, overtaking Saudi Arabia and the US, as refiners seek cheaper heavy crude amid West Asia conflict disruptions. Imports from Venezuela surged to 417,000 bpd.
The US has extended a sanctions waiver for 30 days, allowing countries to buy Russian seaborne crude. This move aims to stabilize global markets and aid vulnerable nations, potentially softening prices and benefiting Indian refiners who have increased purchases from Russia.
Indian refiners have doubled their Russian oil purchases for April to 60 million barrels, paying premiums above Brent benchmarks as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
