New research indicates Brexit has reduced UK exports to the EU by 12%, with services exports down 7% and goods exports down 16%. Leaving the single market accounts for most of this decline, with regulatory costs having a greater impact than customs barriers. Rejoining the customs union would offer only a minor benefit.
UK exports to the Middle East have fallen 20% year-on-year since the Iran war began eight weeks ago, with certificates of origin dropping from 15,437 to 12,360. NIESR predicts the conflict will cost the UK economy £35bn in 2026-2027 even in a best-case scenario. Oil prices have risen 3.3% to $115/barrel amid reports of a planned US blockade of Iranian ports, while EU economic sentiment has tumbled 2.9 points.
UK exports to the Middle East have fallen 20% year-on-year since the Iran war began eight weeks ago, with certificates of origin dropping from 15,437 in March 2025 to 12,360 in March 2026. The British Chambers of Commerce reports firms are facing disrupted trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz, rising insurance premiums and extended lead times, with SMEs particularly affected. The CBI's Growth Indicator shows UK businesses are pessimistic about the economic outlook.
UK exports to the Middle East have fallen by 20% year-on-year since the Iran war began eight weeks ago, with certificates of origin dropping from 15,437 in March 2025 to 12,360 in March 2026. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research warns the conflict could knock £35bn off UK GDP over 2026-2027 in a best-case scenario. Oil prices have surged to $115 a barrel, the highest in a month, amid reports of a planned extended US blockade of Iranian ports.
UK exports to the Middle East have fallen 20% year-on-year since the Iran war began eight weeks ago, with certificates of origin dropping from 15,437 to 12,360 in March. The decline indicates goods being delayed, rerouted or not shipped at all. Oil prices have risen to $113/barrel, the highest in a month, after reports Trump plans an extended blockade of Iranian ports. The FTSE 100 fell to its lowest level since April 1, while Lloyds reported strong profits despite a £151m Middle East impairment charge.
UK exports to Middle East fell 20% year-on-year in March, with certificates of origin dropping from 15,437 to 12,360. The British Chambers of Commerce reports firms face less reliable trade routes, rising costs and geopolitical risks, with the Strait of Hormuz badly disrupted. The CBI also shows UK companies increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook.
