Bitcoin surged past $65,000, recovering from recent selling pressure. A US-Iran peace deal, mediated by Pakistan and set for signing June 19, eased geopolitical tensions, leading to falling oil prices and rising crypto markets. ETF outflows also slowed, indicating reduced forced selling.
Markets rallied on hopes of a US-Israel-Iran war ceasefire, but central banks, including the Bank of Korea, are signaling interest rate hikes due to persistent inflation and financial risks, despite respectable economic growth.
The European Central Bank has raised its main deposit rate to 2.25% in response to rising inflation, driven by the war in Iran and increased energy costs. This marks the first rate hike since 2023, with markets anticipating further increases.
Shanghai's municipal government has announced plans to research and develop compute futures, a new financial derivative, as part of its strategy to become a global wealth management hub. This marks the first official mention of compute futures by Shanghai authorities.
Binance has launched US equities trading for eligible users, offering commission-free trading on over 7,000 stocks and ETFs. The exchange plans to introduce tokenized stocks, called bStocks, in the coming weeks, pending regulatory approval, as part of its expansion into a multi-asset platform.
Experts warn that the world is heading for a major financial crisis, potentially worse than 2007, due to incompetent handling by governments, particularly the US under Donald Trump. Accumulating US debt, potential AI bubble burst, and geopolitical instability are key risks.
The Iran war is causing stagflation and starvation due to reduced oil and fertilizer supplies, with potential for a global economic shock. Rising bond yields could pop the AI bubble, and petrol prices may reach $10 a gallon this summer.
U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise Monday, with the 10-year note hitting a 15-month high, amid a global bond market sell-off and ahead of a G7 finance ministers meeting in Paris. Inflation and debt concerns are weighing on markets worldwide.
U.S. Treasury yields climbed Monday due to resurgent inflationary pressures, with the 10-year note hitting a 15-month high. Global markets also saw bond sell-offs, with German and Japanese yields rising, while UK yields eased slightly amid political uncertainty.
Lucy Rigby, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, highlights digital assets' potential to transform U.K. financial markets through efficiencies, quicker capital flows, and broader market transformation, alongside upcoming regulatory reforms and international alignment efforts.
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsStarmer on the brink as cabinet ministers urge him to quitGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.Another UK political crisis is looming over the City of London today, as prime minister Sir Keir Starmer faces more calls to set out a timetable for his departure.With a Cabinet meeting expected this morning, today could be a big day in determining Starmer’s future.In response to the uncertainty, 10-year UK gilt yields rose +8.6bps to 5.00% yesterday, whilst the 30-year yield rose +9.3bps to 5.67%, given expectations that a new Labour leader may face pressure to ease the fiscal rules and raise gilt issuance. Continue reading...
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink refutes AI bubble concerns, citing a significant shortage in computing capacity, chips, and memory. He predicts a future where financial markets will trade futures of compute, highlighting the growing demand for AI infrastructure. BlackRock is actively investing in data centers and energy assets to meet this demand.
The experts conclude that the risks are systemic
Beneath the surface of the world’s oceans lies an infrastructure so essential, modern life would stall without it – yet so invisible it rarely enters public debate. Submarine cables, slender fibre-optic systems laid across the seabed, carry over 95 per cent of global internet traffic, transmitting the data that underpins financial markets, diplomatic exchanges and everyday communication. What appears to be neutral infrastructure is, in fact, a deeply political system – one that exposes a...
US president pauses ‘Project Freedom’ to work on ‘final agreement’ with Tehran; stocks also ride high on AI euphoriaGood morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.Asian stock markets hit record highs, following in Wall Street’s footsteps, and oil prices retreated after Donald Trump hailed “great progress” towards a “final agreement” with Tehran.on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran”.Investors bought and continue to add to positioning in the 2026 winners. There has been some buying in S&P 500 materials stocks, but it’s tech that continues to attract the bulk of flows, notably in Apple and the memory plays.9am BST: Eurozone services and composite PMIs for April9.30am BST: UK services and composite PMIs for April1.15pm BST: US ADP employment change for April Continue reading...
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsAustralia hikes interest rates to 4.35% in blow to mortgage holdersThe Financial Times have a corking story this morning – UK chancellor Rachel Reeves had a “fierce row” with US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent in Washington last month, they say.The pair of finance ministers clashed over the Iran war on the sidelines of the IMF’s Spring Meeting, after Reeves said she was “not convinced” that “we are safer today than we were a few weeks ago”.Reeves responded angrily by telling Bessent she did not work for him and disliked how he had spoken to her.She also reiterated her argument about the Iran conflict lacking clear goals and not necessarily making the world safer.“This is a war that we did not start. It was a war that we did not want. I feel very frustrated and angry that the US went into this war without a clear exit plan, without a clear idea of what they were trying to achieve. And as a result the strait of Hormuz is now blocked.”The decrease reflected higher expected credit losses and other credit impairment charges (‘ECL‘) in 1Q26, an adverse impact from notable items and a rise in operating expenses.The macroeconomic outlook is facing heightened uncertainty, creating volatility in both economic forecasts and financial markets resulting in both tailwinds and headwinds.The Group is well-positioned to manage the impacts of these challenges through our high-quality revenue streams, conservative approach to credit risk and strong deposit franchise. Supporting our clients through this volatile period is a top priority.9am BST: UK car sales for April1.30pm BST: US trade report for March3pm BST: US service sector PMI Continue reading...
The Indian rupee plunged to a record low of 95.40 against the US dollar on Tuesday, extending its decline amid escalating Middle East tensions and elevated crude oil prices. This global uncertainty is impacting financial markets, with Indian benchmark indices also trading lower. Analysts anticipate continued pressure on the rupee due to persistent dollar demand and foreign fund outflows.
Renault's UK managing director Adam Wood has reported a 'seismic shift upwards' in electric vehicle interest following oil price spikes caused by the Iran war. EV enquiries on Renault's website are up 42%, with electric vehicles now accounting for almost 50% of the company's UK sales in April. The Renault 5 was Britain's bestselling electric car that month. Oil prices remain above $111 per barrel amid ongoing tensions over the strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices above $111/barrel have triggered a seismic shift in electric vehicle interest, with Renault UK reporting 42% more enquiries and EVs now comprising 50% of its sales. Meanwhile, UK house prices rose 0.4% in April despite economic gloom, NatWest reported £1.4bn Q1 profits but set aside £140m for geopolitical risk, AstraZeneca fell 1.9% after US regulators rejected its breast cancer drug, and Diageo rose 2% after Trump removed Scotch whisky tariffs.
Diageo shares rose 2% after Trump announced removal of 10% tariffs on Scotch whisky in honor of King Charles. UK house prices unexpectedly increased 0.4% in April with annual growth reaching 3.0%, while NatWest reported Q1 profits of £1.4bn despite setting aside £140m for potential economic worsening.
Whitbread is cutting 3,800 jobs in the UK and Ireland, representing 12% of its workforce, as it transitions to a pure hotel business. The move follows increased tax burdens from the 2025 budget and pressure from activist investors.
UK exports to Middle East fell 20% year-on-year in March, with certificates of origin dropping from 15,437 to 12,360. The British Chambers of Commerce reports firms face less reliable trade routes, rising costs and geopolitical risks, with the Strait of Hormuz badly disrupted. The CBI also shows UK companies increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook.
BP nearly doubled its profits to $3.2bn in Q1 2026, driven by surging oil and gas prices following the Iran war that began at the end of February. The oil major beat analyst expectations, with CEO Meg O'Neill acknowledging the "environment of conflict and complexity." Campaign group Global Witness criticized the profits, noting this is the second time in four years that geopolitical conflict has boosted oil company earnings, following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Financial markets, stock markets especially, appear able to defy gravity despite the global geopolitical and economic situation. A plethora of institutional and individual explanations have been offered as to why, but most seem to miss the point. Which is, at least in part, that we have created a kind of monster in the asset management industry, which channels a glut of global savings into a limited number of investment areas and which, by virtue of these captive inflows, is able to maintain...
