Business·4/30/2026AI summary How M2 Lost Its Magic: Bitcoin's Broken Playbook and the New Liquidity Battleground
The traditional Bitcoin playbook — that expanding global M2 drives capital into risk assets with crypto capturing disproportionate share — has broken down. While March 2026 US M2 printed at $22.7 trillion (up 4.6% YoY), Bitcoin failed to hold $76,000 as the transmission mechanism shifted from Fed balance sheet expansion to Treasury issuance, reserve management, and cash balance dynamics. Real Vision's Jamie Coutts argues the $60,000 zone represents a value floor, with the bull case requiring inflation cooling, Treasury cash declining, and reserves rebuilding. The bear case sees debt issuance overwhelming liquidity growth, forcing Bitcoin to trade as high-beta risk exposed to funding conditions.