Bitcoin Traders Skeptical Despite Rally, Derivatives Show Weak Conviction

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin derivatives show weak conviction with 2% futures basis and elevated put options premium signaling caution.

Institutional buying via $86 million ETF inflows plus Strategy’s (MSTR US) ongoing accumulation counters market fear.

Bitcoin (BTC) jumped above $67,000 after US President Donald Trump announced a late Sunday ceasefire deal with Iran. Despite this short-term optimism, derivatives metrics show that crypto traders remain highly skeptical, raising concerns that this sudden rally could be a massive bull trap.

Brent crude oil (left) vs. Nasdaq 100 Index (right). Source: TradingView

Crude Brent oil declined to a 100-day low on Monday, while the Nasdaq Index gained 3%. However, Bitcoin traders remained cautious due to the lack of a final deadline and clear operational details for shipping companies following the peace deal with Iran, though an interim agreement is expected this Friday.

Bitcoin 2-month futures basis rate. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin futures annualized premium (basis rate) stood at 2% on Monday, signaling a lack of demand for leveraged bullish positions. This indicator has failed to break above the neutral 4% threshold for over 3 months, reflecting Bitcoin's -24% year-to-date performance. Still, Bitcoin's 4% daily spike caught short sellers off-guard, triggering $210 million in liquidations.

Bitcoin price is supported by spot ETF inflows and Strategy acquisitions

Part of the bullish sentiment stemmed from the $86 million net inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Friday. While positive, this inflow was not nearly enough to reverse the heavy $730 million in net outflows seen since June 5. ETF activity is widely tracked as a proxy for institutional demand, bulls are likely waiting for stronger confirmation.

Bitcoin 30-day options skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas

The weak conviction among bulls was also evident in the options market, where traders actively avoided protection against downside risk. Bitcoin put (sell) options traded at a 16% premium over call (buy) instruments, flashing a clear warning sign of downside fear. This crypto weakness stood out even more as the Nasdaq 100 Index rallied, trading just 1% shy of its all-time high.

Traders’ skepticism is also being fueled by conflicting claims over future shipping tolls in Iran, especially since the current agreement only locks in a two-month window, according to Yahoo Finance. Meanwhile, equity investors are finding plenty of reasons for optimism elsewhere, with the artificial intelligence sector getting a massive boost from the record-breaking SpaceX (SPCX US) IPO.

Public companies Bitcoin treasury ranking, BTC. Source: CoinGecko

SpaceX, the aerospace and artificial intelligence powerhouse founded by Elon Musk, recently secured $75 billion in the largest IPO in history. SPCX shares surged 14% on Monday, driving the company's valuation to a massive $2.1 trillion. The multi-billionaire is a vocal proponent of cryptocurrencies, and the latest SEC filings reveal that SpaceX itself holds 18,712 Bitcoin on its balance sheet.

Related: These Bitcoin charts show how BTC price could hit $100K before October

For now, Bitcoin bears maintain control as persistent weakness across derivatives markets shows low conviction in the $60,000 support level. However, a sustained rally back above $70,000 could quickly materialize if falling oil prices continue to ease recession risks, giving the Federal Reserve more room to implement a less restrictive US monetary policy.