New Poll Shows Declining Bipartisan Support for Israel in the US

A new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals a significant decline in bipartisan backing for Israel, marking a dramatic shift in a foreign policy issue once considered a consensus.

The survey highlights growing opposition among Democrats and emerging divisions within Republican ranks, as criticism mounts over Israel's conduct nearly three years after the latest conflict with Hamas in Gaza began.

The findings indicate that approximately one-third of U.S. adults, including about half of Democrats, believe Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians during the war in Gaza.

This accusation, leveled by some human rights organizations and vehemently denied by both Israel and the U.S. government, is not universally accepted, with roughly 2 in 10 Americans disagreeing and the remaining half unsure. Notably, about 30% of Jewish adults share this view, though nearly half, 49%, do not.

Harold Kalmus, a 69-year-old Democrat from Arden, Delaware, who identifies as Jewish by birth, expressed his disillusionment. "I realize that there is a threat from Hamas. And I realize they’re in a very difficult situation, but what they have done is just an unspeakable horror," he stated, referring to Israel’s military actions. "They’re trying to wipe out a civilization as far as I’m concerned."

These sharply eroded views come nearly three years after Hamas' attack on October 7, 2023, which resulted in 1,200 deaths in Israel, predominantly civilians, and 251 hostages taken to Gaza.

Since then, more than 73,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, which does not differentiate between civilian and militant casualties.

While American sympathies had been gradually shifting towards Palestinians since around 2020, this trend has accelerated significantly since the current war in Gaza commenced.

Regarding Israel's military actions, about 4 in 10 Americans remain undecided on whether the immediate response to Hamas’ attack or its ongoing operations were justified.

Among those with an opinion, most deemed the initial retaliation justified, but a majority now believe its current actions are not. This sentiment is echoed among Jewish adults, with about three-quarters justifying the initial response, but only 4 in 10 supporting ongoing operations.

Despite being a "searing topic" in American politics, only about one-third of U.S. adults consider Israel an "extremely" or "very" important personal issue.

The relationship between the two nations remains tense, particularly with high-stakes midterm elections approaching that will determine the balance of power in Congress for what would be the final two years of Donald Trump's term.

Vice President JD Vance recently criticized Israeli leaders for expressing frustration with Trump, while vocal critics of Israel have secured victories against establishment-backed Democrats in recent New York and Colorado primaries.

The poll reveals a decisive shift within the Democratic Party. Approximately 58% of Democrats now believe the U.S. is "too supportive" of Israel, an increase from 45% in January 2024.

This includes 51% of Jewish Democrats. Concurrently, about 62% of Democrats feel the U.S. is "not supportive enough" of Palestinians, up from 49% in 2024. While younger Democrats (under 45) are still more likely to hold this view, older Democrats are increasingly aligning with them, with 57% now advocating for more U.S. support for Palestinians, a rise from 39% two years prior.

Joy Jennik, a 73-year-old Democrat from Brookfield, Wisconsin, stated that she developed strong opinions on the U.S.-Israel relationship only after the October 7 attack. She now believes Israel is guilty of genocide. "The Gaza Strip, there’s not a lot left of it. Those poor people are barely living," said Jennik, a retired home economics teacher.

Among Republicans, only 13% describe Israel’s actions as genocide, though an age gap exists, with about 2 in 10 Republicans under 45 holding this view compared to 1 in 10 among those 45 and older. Overall, 60% of Republicans consider U.S. support for Israel "about right."

While only about 2 in 10 Republicans believe the U.S. is "too supportive" of Israel, younger Republicans are more inclined to this perspective. The share of Republicans who feel the U.S. is "not supportive enough" has decreased from 39% to 15% since 2024.

Mike Cardona, a 70-year-old Republican from suburban Phoenix, expressed satisfaction with U.S. support for Israel and rejected the genocide accusation. "I wish they’d gone in harder and better," Cardona, a retired industrial supply salesperson, said of Israel's military action in Gaza.

"Unfortunately, some innocents will be hurt, but Hamas and Hezbollah never took that into consideration when they were killing children and women in Israel."

Interviews with respondents indicated that criticism of Israel often targets its leadership, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is widely perceived as closely aligned with Trump and has had repeated clashes with Democratic presidents.

Only 20% of U.S. adults hold a favorable view of Netanyahu, while 38% hold an unfavorable view and 41% are undecided. Netanyahu is particularly unpopular among Jewish adults, with about 6 in 10 viewing him unfavorably.

Younger adults, across party lines, are more likely to be undecided about Netanyahu, but younger Republicans' views are more unfavorable.

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a prominent critic of Israel, garners a 27% favorable opinion among U.S. adults, with 28% unfavorable and 44% undecided. Jewish adults, predominantly Democrats, view Mamdani more positively than Netanyahu, with 44% favorable and 39% unfavorable. About half of Democrats overall have a favorable impression of Mamdani.

Despite these strong opinions, the U.S.-Israel relationship is not a primary concern for many Americans heading into the midterm elections.

For voters like Michael Ripka, a 34-year-old stagehand from Casper, Wyoming, who typically votes Republican, the economy is paramount. "Everything is mad expensive," he said, adding that conflicts in the Middle East are "100% a very big distraction."