Oil Prices Surge 4% Amid US Strikes on Iran and Strait of Hormuz Tensions

Oil prices were 4% higher on Wednesday morning following the 11th consecutive round of U.S. strikes against Iran overnight, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Strait of Hormuz remains a sticking point between the two sides.

Shortly after 4 a.m. ET, global benchmark Brent crude futures for July delivery were almost 4% higher at $94.23. Front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 3.8% to trade at $87.46.

At the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting in the Philippines on Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington remained committed to diplomacy, but accused Tehran of violating the two sides' agreement over the Strait of Hormuz.

"The problem we're having right now is that they're not serious about talks," he said. "If they're serious, we're serious. If they're not, then we will do what is necessary to protect our interests and also the interests of our allies."

Tuesday saw the U.S. Central Command carry out its eleventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran.

Centcom forces targeted Iranian military operations centers, maritime capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage facilities, and military logistics infrastructure.

The military unit said the strikes had been completed to "further degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz."

Rubio said Wednesday that the strait — a critical shipping route for oil and other vital commodities — remains a sticking point in bilateral talks, alleging that Iran "demands the right" to control the waterway. Allowing this to happen would set "a very dangerous precedent" for the world, he added.

"With no breakthroughs regarding Iran, the market focus returned to inflation over the last 24 hours, as Brent crude closed above $90/bbl for the first time in over a month, reviving fears about a wider stagflationary shock. And this morning we've seen a further rise above $92/bbl, so there's little sign of oil prices easing as the U.S. confirmed overnight they'd completed an 11th consecutive evening of strikes against Iran," Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said in a note on Wednesday morning.

As energy prices continued to climb, investor bets on hawkish Federal Reserve policy measures mounted.

"The probability of a July hike was back up to 26% by [Tuesday's] close, the highest since last week's downside surprise in the U.S. CPI print," Reid wrote on Wednesday. "It was at 45% the day before CPI and as low as 10% the day after."

As of Wednesday morning, money markets were pricing in a 24.1% chance of a rate hike from the Fed this month, and a 69% chance of at least a quarter-point hike in September, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

Analysts at ING said in a note released on Wednesday morning that there were "mounting supply risks" in energy markets, as hopes for a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran faded.

"The disruptions facing the market don't end in the Middle East. In the Black Sea, Russia's CPC terminal has stopped receiving oil from Kazakhstan, with loadings suspended following ongoing attacks on tankers," they noted.

"The longer the suspension drags on, the greater the likelihood that Kazakhstan will be forced to curb upstream production. Volumes shipped from the CPC terminal are significant, with around 1.7m b/d loaded in June."