Powerful El Nino Forms, Poised to Intensify Extreme Weather Globally

A powerful El Nino has officially formed in the Pacific Ocean, with meteorologists warning Thursday that it is poised to reach historic strength and intensify extreme weather events across the globe.

The natural warming cycle is expected to exacerbate global temperatures, already elevated by fossil fuel emissions, and could supercharge severe weather patterns worldwide. The phenomenon is predicted to rival or even surpass the record-setting El Nino of 1997, which caused billions in damages through heatwaves, floods, droughts, tornadoes, and wildfires.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration formally confirmed the existence of the El Nino, a warming of the Pacific near the equator that profoundly affects global weather patterns. NOAA projects a 63% likelihood that this El Nino will become so intense by late fall and early winter that it "would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950."

Clark University climate scientist Abby Frazier explained that the warm, deep waters of an El Nino introduce "a lot of extra heat to the surface, fueling a lot of extreme events for a lot of places around the world." She cautioned that, particularly in the Pacific, "it can get dire very quickly."

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres echoed this urgency, describing El Nino as an "urgent climate warning" and stating that "El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world."

The weather pattern's effects vary by region. El Nino often dampens — but doesn't eliminate — Atlantic hurricane season activity, but increases it in the Pacific. So while the U.S. East and Gulf coasts may get a break, Hawaii and other islands are more in danger, Frazier said.

The drought-stricken Middle East could benefit, climate scientists said. Other places are looking at more danger. Parts of western South America — where the first El Ninos were noticed decades ago — often get heavy rain and floods, along with an extra warm summer. India faces more intense heat waves, while drought, wildfires and heat threaten Australia.

Northeastern Africa is likely going to get weather whiplash from intense drought to dangerously heavy rains, said Columbia University climate scientist and El Nino expert Muhammad Azhar Ehsan.

In the U.S., El Ninos can cause more intense storms with heavier rainfall in the South, but they also tend to generally benefit the U.S. agriculture industry, said Jon Gottschalck, operational branch chief at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Michael Ferrari, meteorologist and head of research at the investment research firm Moby, said conditions for grains and seed, especially soybeans, look favorable in 18 major growing states, but are more mixed when it comes to dairy and cattle.

The northern Rockies and Southwest — where there’s an “off the charts” snow drought — could get some strong summer rains, Gottschalck said. The biggest effect in the U.S. is often in the winter, when the south can get wetter and the Pacific Northwest warmer and drier.

But overall, temperatures raised by the weather pattern can dampen American economic growth, said Stanford climate economist Marshall Burke. Several climate scientists forecast that 2027 will be the hottest year on record because of lagging effects of this El Nino, which is expected to peak in the fall or winter.

“We have pretty clear evidence that the U.S. economy grows more slowly when temps are above normal,” Burke said.

The weather extremes caused by an El Nino also depend on when it develops.

Usually El Ninos form in the summer, peak in the late fall or early winter, and peter out the next spring, scientists said.

However, Ehsan's team forecasts that this El Nino will peak a month or two earlier based on strong early signs from recent weeks. Princeton University climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi said large El Ninos like these also tend to last longer.

The early indications — including warmer water pushing toward the surface of the Pacific — have been so strong and noticeable that forecasters have all been predicting the same ultra strong El Nino, Vecchi said, adding that El Nino forecasts often are all over the place at this time of year.

Scientists predict stronger El Ninos as the world warms from the burning of coal, oil and gas, Frazier and others said. But she said it is too early to say if this El Nino is part of that.

Even before it officially formed, this El Nino has gotten nicknames ranging from “super” to “Godzilla.”

“Instead of scared, we can ask people to be prepared,” Columbia's Ehsan said