Major Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are implementing new restrictions on employee trading on prediction market platforms due to concerns about the use of nonpublic information. This follows increased scrutiny from US lawmakers and regulators.
North Carolina enacted a law recognizing the CFTC's authority over prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, imposing a 6% tax on operators' revenue from state residents starting in 2027. This contrasts with other states' crackdowns and litigation.
A New York federal court denied KalshiEX's request for a preliminary injunction against state gaming officials enforcing gambling laws on sports-event contracts. The decision allows states to regulate these contracts while federal rules are developed, creating a two-track access risk.
Venture capital firm Paradigm has raised a $1.2 billion fund to invest in AI and robotics, expanding beyond its crypto focus. Meanwhile, BNB Chain is developing a new Layer-1 blockchain optimized for AI agents and autonomous trading, aiming for high transaction speeds and native privacy features.
Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 housing crash, has bought shares in DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment. He believes regulators will eventually crack down on prediction markets, benefiting these established sports-betting operators.
Kalshi traders are betting on low probabilities for the US government taking a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic this year, with odds under 30%. However, they see higher chances for stakes in quantum computing firms Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, and semiconductor manufacturer GlobalFoundries, with odds over 60%.
Coinbase's AI-generated alert incorrectly reported a World Cup result before the match, raising concerns about market integrity and the blurring lines between automated content and tradable outcomes in prediction markets. The incident highlights the urgent need for clear verification standards in trading apps.
The CLARITY Act faces a mixed outlook as law enforcement opposition softens, with the Major County Sheriffs of America moving to neutral and the National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives endorsing the bill. However, an ethics dispute over crypto conflicts of interest, highlighted by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's push and linked to Donald Trump's disclosures, is intensifying, potentially jeopardizing Democratic votes needed for passage.
US President Donald Trump reportedly called FIFA to overturn a red card suspension for striker Folarin Balogun. Prediction markets saw massive trading volumes in June, with Kalshi and Polymarket setting new highs. Oil prices fell amid deescalation in the Iran conflict and an OPEC+ production increase.
As wildfires devastate communities, prediction markets like Polymarket and the new Wyldfyre platform allow users to bet on fire outcomes, raising ethical alarms. Critics call the practice "morally reprehensible" and "heartless," fearing it could incentivize arson and diminish the value of human life, while official agencies reject such data for forecasting.
ESMA warns prediction market contracts may already fall under existing binary options restrictions, stating companies can't avoid financial regulations by marketing them as 'event contracts.' In the US, a legal battle is ongoing between state gaming regulators and the CFTC over whether these contracts are gambling or federally regulated derivatives.
Robinhood launched its own Ethereum layer-2 blockchain, tokenized stocks, and decentralized lending products, expanding its global crypto infrastructure. This comes as its prediction market revenue, particularly from event contracts, shows potential to surpass crypto transaction revenue.
A Michigan judge has issued a 14-day temporary restraining order against Kalshi, barring the platform from offering sports prediction markets in the state. The court cited potential irreparable harm, especially to young users, as the case continues to debate whether these markets constitute illegal gambling.
A Michigan judge issued a temporary restraining order against prediction market Kalshi, blocking residents from sports betting due to alleged gambling law violations. The ruling, which includes potential daily fines, marks Michigan as the second state to ban Kalshi's sports event contracts, intensifying regulatory scrutiny on prediction markets.
US stock markets (Nasdaq +1.4%, S&P 500 +0.8%) rallied after the Supreme Court blocked Trump's attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and a U.S.-Iran ceasefire reduced tensions. Despite this, Bitcoin (BTC) remained largely unaffected, down 53% from its October 2025 all-time high, logging back-to-back quarterly losses reminiscent of the 2022 bear market. Technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook with downward pressure, supported by hawkish Fed stance (80% chance of December rate hike), $4 billion outflow from Spot Bitcoin ETFs in June, and bearish indicators (ADX, RSI, EMA). Prediction markets (Myriad) price in an 80% chance of BTC dropping to $55K over rebounding to $84K.
A legal battle is escalating between states and the federal government over who regulates sports betting, with Illinois classifying prediction markets like Kalshi as unlicensed sports wagering operators. Kalshi has sued Illinois, arguing that the CFTC holds exclusive authority over its "event contracts" and that state regulation is overly burdensome and illegal.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen record trading volumes, exceeding $3.3 billion for World Cup contracts, far surpassing the Super Bowl. Despite a concentrated market on top contenders, billions remain on longshots. This surge coincides with increased regulatory scrutiny, including a CFTC investigation into Polymarket.
Authorities face challenges in banning and prosecuting online prediction markets, which operate on overseas platforms and allow trading on future events. Major platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi saw billions in trades.
Prediction market Kalshi partnered with FIFA-linked ADI Predictstreet to boost World Cup marketing. This comes as weekly trading volumes in prediction markets surged to $14.5 billion, driven by intense sports wagering demand, with platforms aggressively scaling campaigns.
Asset manager 21shares has revised down its crypto industry forecasts for the year, noting that while institutional adoption and underlying infrastructure have strengthened, weak market conditions and muted retail participation have slowed growth. The report highlights Bitcoin's intact four-year cycle and the resilience of crypto ETFs despite outflows.
Asset manager 21shares revised its crypto forecasts, noting institutional adoption strengthens while weak market conditions and muted retail participation slow growth. The report highlights Bitcoin's intact four-year cycle, resilient crypto ETFs, and prediction markets outperforming expectations.
A Bitget Wallet study found that about 60% of first-time Polymarket users had no prior blockchain interaction, indicating prediction markets are a new gateway to crypto, bypassing traditional token trading or DeFi.
US-based prediction market platform Kalshi is reportedly in talks to raise funds at a $40 billion valuation, nearly doubling its May valuation. The company's value could increase eightfold in less than a year, amid surging investor interest in prediction markets.
Kalshi has sued Illinois in federal court, challenging the state's new 15% tax on sports-related prediction market wagers, set to take effect July 1. The lawsuit argues that prediction markets are not gambling and should be regulated by the CFTC, not taxed by the state.
