Prediction market firm Kalshi demands Netflix remove trailer for "Instadocs: The Prediction Games", alleging defamation and false statements regarding a banned Nevada operation.
Prediction market startup Kalshi significantly exceeded its projections during the 2026 Fifa World Cup, achieving US$27 billion in trading volume and three million users. This success propels Kalshi into wider event contracts, including new markets for clinical trials and FDA reviews, despite ongoing regulatory challenges.
Un trader affirme sur X avoir transformé 1 000 dollars en plus de 16 000 dollars en dix semaines grâce à des prompts Grok sur les marchés prédictifs. Cette performance, invérifiable et utilisée à des fins promotionnelles, intervient alors que Grok s'intègre officiellement à Polymarket et Kalshi, malgré des résultats contrastés pour les IA dans le trading réel.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are experiencing significant institutional growth. Firms and AI agents use event contracts for price discovery and trader evaluation, with monthly volumes reaching billions, despite challenges in execution and potential for concentrated edge.
Institutional crypto trading platform Talos has integrated with Kalshi, enabling select clients to trade Kalshi's event contracts and crypto perpetuals using their existing Talos infrastructure. This move aims to lower operational hurdles for professional trading firms, coinciding with record trading volumes in prediction markets despite ongoing regulatory scrutiny and legal battles in the US.
Prediction market platform Kalshi launched its 'Midterms Hub,' allowing users to view traders' expectations for U.S. Senate and House races. The hub integrates market odds with polling averages, fundraising data, and news, aiming to provide unbiased political insights backed by real money.
Kalshi, Polymarket, and the casino/gaming sectors are engaged in a lobbying arms race in Washington, spending millions to influence lawmakers amid increasing scrutiny of prediction markets from Congress and regulators over their classification as financial products or sports betting.
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi saw $5.57B in World Cup trading volume, pushing the sector into mainstream sports betting. While a few traders captured most profits, the surge highlights potential commercial applications but also intensifies US regulatory scrutiny over whether these platforms are derivatives or gambling.
La finale du Mondial a généré 5,69 milliards de dollars de volume sur les marchés prédictifs Kalshi et Polymarket. Cette croissance massive attire de nouveaux acteurs mais déclenche une bataille réglementaire entre la CFTC et neuf États américains sur la classification des contrats sportifs.
Prediction market Kalshi recorded $40 billion in World Cup wagers, sparking skepticism from sportsbooks and regulators who argue it operates as an unlicensed gambling app. Kalshi claims it's a federally regulated financial product, not subject to state gaming taxes or age restrictions, leading to over 20 federal lawsuits and a potential Supreme Court case.
Kalshi is expanding its prediction markets to include wagers on drug trial results, aiming to increase transparency in drug development. This pilot program, in partnership with AppliedXL, faces criticism regarding market manipulation and insider trading. Kalshi also paused plans for flight cancellation bets after FlightAware disavowed data use.
A White House teleprompter operator, Gabriel Perez, is under investigation for allegedly using inside information to make nearly $100,000 on a prediction market platform by betting on words President Trump would use in speeches. His account was frozen, and he is now on unpaid leave from the White House.
Prediction market Kalshi gained 3 million new users and saw over $1.2 billion traded on its World Cup contracts, a record for a single market. The platform utilized high-profile marketing campaigns but faces regulatory challenges from states arguing its sports contracts are akin to sports betting.
Major Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are implementing new restrictions on employee trading on prediction market platforms due to concerns about the use of nonpublic information. This follows increased scrutiny from US lawmakers and regulators.
A New York federal court denied KalshiEX's request for an injunction against state gambling law enforcement on sports-event contracts. The decision allows states to regulate these contracts while federal rules are pending, creating a two-track access risk.
North Carolina enacted a law recognizing the CFTC's authority over prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, imposing a 6% tax on operators' revenue from state residents starting in 2027. This contrasts with other states' crackdowns and litigation.
Federal Reserve policymakers are divided on future interest rate hikes, with traders on Kalshi showing a slight majority (54%) expecting a hike this year. The Fed's June meeting minutes revealed differing views among participants regarding the appropriate rate level by year-end.
Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi anticipate elevated gas prices for an extended period due to renewed US-Iran strikes and uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz. Odds for prices above $3.50 on election day have risen significantly.
A New York federal court denied KalshiEX's request for a preliminary injunction against state gaming officials enforcing gambling laws on sports-event contracts. The decision allows states to regulate these contracts while federal rules are developed, creating a two-track access risk.
Despite new scrutiny and internal efforts, campaign staffers continue to attempt insider trading on political races via prediction markets like Kalshi. Kalshi's new monitoring system flags potential violations, but loopholes remain, allowing some trades.
A federal judge rejected Kalshi's attempt to block New York's gambling laws, ruling that the prediction market operator is not exempt from state regulations. Kalshi is appealing the decision, which allows New York to enforce its laws while litigation continues.
在美國對伊朗發動攻擊後，交易者預期荷姆茲海峽航運恢復正常的時間將延後，最新押注顯示至2027年才會恢復正常。此發展也影響了全球原油供應的預期。
Kalshi is appealing a New York federal judge's decision to deny its request to block state gambling officials from enforcing laws against its sports-related event contracts. The appeal escalates a legal battle over whether these markets are federally regulated derivatives or state-regulated gambling.
Kalshi traders are betting on low probabilities for the US government taking a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic this year, with odds under 30%. However, they see higher chances for stakes in quantum computing firms Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, and semiconductor manufacturer GlobalFoundries, with odds over 60%.
