A father shares his emotional turmoil as his 12-year-old son undergoes a clinical trial for recurring cancer, just as prediction market Kalshi moves to allow financial bets on FDA decisions and clinical trial results.
Several US senators wrote a letter to the CFTC inquiring about plans to crack down on prediction markets offering contracts to bet on wildfires, citing risks of arson and profiting off community suffering.
Australia's corporate watchdog ASIC has issued its strongest warning yet against offshore prediction markets, which are illegal in the country and offer no consumer protection, with Alan Kirkland comparing them to gambling.
The CLARITY Act faces an uncertain path in the Senate during its final week before the August recess, with ongoing disputes over government ethics and stablecoin rewards. Prediction markets indicate low odds of the bill becoming law this year, potentially pushing the legislative fight into September.
New York has sued prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operates an illegal gambling business by offering event contracts. The lawsuit seeks to halt operations, recover illegal gains, and impose penalties, while Kalshi defends its federally licensed status amid an escalating jurisdictional dispute with the CFTC.
Prediction markets doubt the longevity of the US-Iran ceasefire, with a Polymarket contract indicating 50-50 odds of a 14-day halt in US strikes, amid skepticism fueled by Trump's readiness for renewed action and Iran's denial of direct negotiations.
Robinhood is discussing a partnership with Crypto.com to offer yes-or-no event contracts in its prediction markets hub, expanding its 2025-launched platform initially facilitated by Kalshi and later by ForecastEx and Rotella.
Bitcoin recovered to $66,347, holding 200 EMA support, despite a bearish 'death cross' and institutional caution reflected in the Coinbase Premium Index. Mixed signals from technicals and macro factors like upcoming tech earnings and the pending Clarity Act create market uncertainty.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are experiencing significant institutional growth. Firms and AI agents use event contracts for price discovery and trader evaluation, with monthly volumes reaching billions, despite challenges in execution and potential for concentrated edge.
Institutional crypto trading platform Talos has integrated with Kalshi, enabling select clients to trade Kalshi's event contracts and crypto perpetuals using their existing Talos infrastructure. This move aims to lower operational hurdles for professional trading firms, coinciding with record trading volumes in prediction markets despite ongoing regulatory scrutiny and legal battles in the US.
US House lawmakers discussed CFTC oversight of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, noting the agency's short-staffing. The proposed CLARITY Act could grant the CFTC more authority over digital assets and prediction markets, amidst a federal-state conflict over regulation, potentially reaching the Supreme Court.
Kalshi, Polymarket, and the casino/gaming sectors are engaged in a lobbying arms race in Washington, spending millions to influence lawmakers amid increasing scrutiny of prediction markets from Congress and regulators over their classification as financial products or sports betting.
Bernstein analysts raised Robinhood's (HOOD) price target to $160, maintaining an Outperform rating, based on their view that tokenized equities and prediction markets, rather than traditional crypto, will drive its next growth phase. They project significant revenue growth from prediction markets and see tokenized real-world assets as a major long-term opportunity, with other financial institutions also expanding tokenization infrastructure.
Hyperliquid is rolling out permissionless prediction markets, allowing anyone to deploy a market by staking 500,000 HYPE tokens. This move aims to open-source the category, contrasting with curated platforms, as prediction markets see record growth, while other crypto news includes an Allbridge exploit and regulatory updates.
Hyperliquid plans a HIP-4 upgrade allowing external operators to create prediction markets, challenging Polymarket. Deployers must stake 500,000 HYPE ($31.7M), with validators retaining broad oversight. This aims to expand market creation beyond validators, mirroring the success of HIP-3's perpetual futures.
Hyperliquid plans to introduce permissionless prediction markets under HIP-4, requiring developers to stake 500,000 HYPE tokens ($30.4 million). This initiative aims to expand event-based markets, with a slashing mechanism for poorly defined or unsettled markets.
Kalshi is expanding its prediction markets to include wagers on drug trial results, aiming to increase transparency in drug development. This pilot program, in partnership with AppliedXL, faces criticism regarding market manipulation and insider trading. Kalshi also paused plans for flight cancellation bets after FlightAware disavowed data use.
Lionel Messi has become the favorite to win this year's Ballon d'Or, surpassing Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane, following his strong performance and reaching the World Cup final. Spanish teenager Lamine Yamal is positioned as the second favorite and a potential challenger.
Major Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are implementing new restrictions on employee trading on prediction market platforms due to concerns about the use of nonpublic information. This follows increased scrutiny from US lawmakers and regulators.
North Carolina enacted a law recognizing the CFTC's authority over prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, imposing a 6% tax on operators' revenue from state residents starting in 2027. This contrasts with other states' crackdowns and litigation.
A New York federal court denied KalshiEX's request for a preliminary injunction against state gaming officials enforcing gambling laws on sports-event contracts. The decision allows states to regulate these contracts while federal rules are developed, creating a two-track access risk.
Venture capital firm Paradigm has raised a $1.2 billion fund to invest in AI and robotics, expanding beyond its crypto focus. Meanwhile, BNB Chain is developing a new Layer-1 blockchain optimized for AI agents and autonomous trading, aiming for high transaction speeds and native privacy features.
Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 housing crash, has bought shares in DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment. He believes regulators will eventually crack down on prediction markets, benefiting these established sports-betting operators.
Kalshi traders are betting on low probabilities for the US government taking a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic this year, with odds under 30%. However, they see higher chances for stakes in quantum computing firms Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, and semiconductor manufacturer GlobalFoundries, with odds over 60%.
