World oil demand will fall by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026 due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday, warning that inventory buffers are rapidly depleting.
The IEA reports global oil demand will decline by 1 million barrels/day in 2026 due to the US-Iran war disrupting Middle Eastern oil production and exports, despite gradual export resumption.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a 1.047 million bpd drop in global oil demand in 2026, the first contraction since 2020. Despite a May slump, improved supply data and lower prices are expected to stimulate consumption, with demand returning to growth in Q4 2026.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a 1 million b/d decline in global oil demand for 2026, the first since 2020. This contraction is attributed to the Iran war's disruption of Middle East production and exports, particularly via the Strait of Hormuz.
China's crude oil demand is expected to peak in 2023, driven by renewable energy development and EV adoption, according to CNPC executives. This shift, coupled with refining overcapacity, will reshape the global energy market.
Oil prices dropped Friday as Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire, while U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland were abruptly canceled. Brent crude futures fell 1% to $79.02 and WTI futures dropped 0.8% to $75.96, both on track for weekly losses.
Oil prices fluctuated Friday as U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland were unexpectedly canceled due to logistical issues. Brent crude fell 0.3% to $79.59, while WTI rose 2.3% to $78.15, both on track for weekly losses. OPEC expects demand to remain strong, rejecting IEA supply glut forecasts.
Oil prices experienced volatile trading as U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland were canceled due to logistical issues. Vice President JD Vance noted Iranian ships honored commitments. OPEC anticipates continued oil demand, rejecting IEA's supply glut forecasts. Analysts predict near-term prices between $75-$82.
OPEC's World Oil Outlook projects global oil demand to increase by 19 million bpd from 2025 levels to 124.1 million bpd by 2050. India is expected to see the largest growth, with other Asian nations, the Middle East, and Africa also contributing significantly. China's demand growth is projected to slow after 2035, while OECD countries are expected to see a decline.
The IEA predicts a potential oil surplus in 2027 due to a surge in supply volumes following a resolution to the Iran conflict, despite a recent erosion of global demand. Oil prices have fallen to a three-month low.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a 1.1 million bpd drop in global oil demand in 2026 due to the Middle East conflict, revising its May forecast downwards. Demand fell sharply in April-May, with recovery expected in Q4 2024.
OPEC has again reduced its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast by 0.2 million barrels per day to 0.97 million bpd. The organization also revised down its 2025 growth forecast by 0.2 million bpd to 1.2 million bpd, while increasing its demand forecast for 2027.
OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 bpd, marking the second consecutive downward revision. Meanwhile, gold prices plunged to a six-month low due to Middle East conflict, rising US interest rate expectations, and upcoming IPOs, leading investors to liquidate safe-haven assets.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais stated at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) that oil demand growth has slightly slowed over the past two months but expects a recovery by 2027, with growth reaching 1.5 million barrels per day next year.
Saudi Arabia's Tadawul index closed down 0.11% at 10990 points. OPEC forecasts strong oil demand growth of 1.2 million bpd this year, despite Middle East conflicts. US jobless claims rose unexpectedly but the labor market remains resilient.
Russian Deputy PM Novak and OPEC Sec-Gen Haitham Al Ghais discussed global oil demand uncertainty at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum. Novak cited Middle East conflict impacts, while Al Ghais maintained OPEC's forecast for strong demand growth.
OPEC anticipates robust oil demand growth of 1.2 million bpd this year, unaffected by Middle East conflicts. Meanwhile, US jobless claims exceeded expectations, though the labor market remains resilient. Russia seeks to leverage the energy crisis to regain its role as a key European supplier.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais expects strong oil demand growth of 1.2 million bpd this year, unaffected by Middle East conflicts. Russia's economic envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, stated Europe needs Russian oil and gas to overcome its energy crisis, urging cooperation despite sanctions.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz until August could trigger a global recession comparable to the 2008 crisis, according to Bloomberg citing Rapidan Energy Group. Analysts predict significant oil price hikes and demand reduction, potentially exacerbating existing economic vulnerabilities.
OPEC revises 2026 global oil demand growth down to 1.2 million bpd, while increasing 2027's forecast to 1.5 million bpd, amidst adjustments in OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ supply projections.
The IEA predicts a 418,000 bpd drop in global oil demand for 2026 due to the Middle East conflict, revising its forecast downward by 334,000 bpd from April's estimate.
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsUnicredit also have a note out on the oil market this morning, in which they warn:The Iran war has triggered one of the largest disruptions to physical oil supply in modern history. While de‑escalation could ease some geopolitical risk premiums, the damage to production, exports and logistics means markets are unlikely to quickly return to pre‑war conditions.We now assume a normalization in Gulf exports by end-June (vs. mid-May prior) and a slower Gulf production recovery. The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock.We assume that global oil demand falls on a year-over-year basis by 1.7mb/d in 2026Q2 and 0.1mb/d in 2026 given the jump in refined product prices. Because extreme inventory draws are not sustainable, even sharper demand losses could be required if the supply shock persists longer.Adverse scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average just over $100 assuming Gulf exports only normalize by end-July.Severely adverse scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average at nearly $120 assuming Gulf exports normalize by end-July and 2.5mb/d of persistent reduction to Gulf capacity. This 2.5mb/d of scarring is equivalent to Hormuz flows not recovering above 70% (till pipeline capacity is expanded).Benign scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average just under $80 assuming Gulf exports normalize by mid-June, no capacity reduction, and stronger US and core OPEC supply responses. Continue reading...
The Iran war has slashed global oil demand by 4 million bpd (4% of consumption), the largest monthly collapse since COVID-19 in 2021, with supplies down 13 million bpd. While short-term demand destruction accelerates EV adoption and biofuel shift, longer-term energy security investments and infrastructure duplication may paradoxically boost oil consumption.
