CryptoQuant Warns Bitcoin Rally Lacks Fundamental Support, Driven by Speculative Futures

Bitcoin surged in April, but its run could be on shaky ground, according to crypto data provider CryptoQuant. The flagship crypto coin gained 12.7% for the month, registering back-to-back monthly gains and its best month since April 2025. It eked out a nearly 2% gain in March, following five consecutive down months. Ether gained 8% in the same period, also its second up month in a row and best month since August.

Perpetual futures — the dominant source of leveraged crypto trading activity — was the "sole driver" of the rally, however, according to CryptoQuant. The firm's apparent demand metric, which tracks the 30-day change in outright purchases of bitcoin, stayed negative throughout April while futures demand rose. The two trends combined are often a warning sign, according to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. They suggest the upward price action is fueled by speculation rather than fundamentals.

"This divergence – rising futures demand alongside contracting spot demand – suggests price appreciation is driven by leverage rather than fresh coin accumulation," Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said in a report Thursday. "Historically, such configurations lack the structural foundation required to sustain price gains and typically resolve via correction once futures positioning unwinds."

The data also underscores the shifting environment for crypto exchanges and importance of crypto derivatives – which include perpetual futures and, increasingly, prediction markets. Perpetual futures, better known as "perps," continue to be the dominant venue for trading activity, liquidity and price discovery. At the same time, spot trading, which early crypto exchanges were built around, is becoming a less reliable engine for steady revenue because it depends on sustained accumulation cycles, which aren't always present.

In 2026, crypto demand has been uneven and mostly reactive. Price action has been closely tied to the broader market – driven by shifting U.S. interest-rate expectations, and periodic geopolitical shocks stemming from the Iran war, rather than regular spot accumulation and underlying buyer demand. The industry also lacks catalysts as regulatory progress – specifically on the market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act – remains stalled.

Moreno noted that a similar pattern – increased futures demand with contracting spot demand – appeared at the start of the 2022 bear market and was followed by a prolonged drop in price. With that in mind, the current uptrend could carry downside risk if the broader market remains in a bearish phase, Moreno said in the report.

Of course, the market during that period was closely tied to an aggressive rate-hiking cycle and a system-wide contagion event in the crypto industry. It also preceded institutions' embrace of bitcoin and the introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs as well as corporate bitcoin accumulators outside of Strategy, then called MicroStrategy.

"This is not a case of lagging spot demand catching up to futures," Moreno said. "Rallies built on this structure tend to be self-limiting. Without spot demand growth to sustain elevated prices, the unwind of futures positioning typically becomes the driver of the subsequent correction."

Net inflows into bitcoin ETFs totaled $1.9 billion in April, bringing total net assets to $100.53 billion. Bitcoin treasury companies increased their net holdings by about 58,000 coins worth roughly $4.4 billion at month-end prices. After hitting the April high of about $79,500, bitcoin logged mostly lower lows for the rest of the month. On Friday it was up more than 2% for the first day of May trading, just a little more than 1% away from its April high.

—CNBC's Nick Wells contributed reporting.