Viral Youth Movement with Cockroach Mascot to Test Offline Popularity in Delhi Protest

A youth political movement in India that has gone viral on social media — and that has a cockroach as its mascot — will face its first offline popularity test on Saturday as it plans a protest in New Delhi.

Within weeks of its launch in mid-May, the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) amassed over 22 million followers on Instagram.

The pseudo-political CJP was launched on May 16 by political communications strategist and Boston university student Abhijeet Dipke in response to comments by India's Chief Justice Surya Kant calling some unemployed youngsters' "parasites" and "cockroaches" during a courtroom hearing.

The CJP claims to have more than a million members and describes itself on its website as the "voice of the lazy and unemployed."

But experts said there is little evidence of on-ground support for the mock party, adding that the scale of protest at the weekend would determine if the movement would be seen as a warning sign or a market-moving event.

Similar movements led by disgruntled youth on social media in Nepal, Bangladesh, and, more recently, Indonesia have disrupted economic activity and threatened political stability. In some cases, it has also led to the ouster of the ruling party.

For investors, it is important that governments "maintain confidence that the next generation will enjoy better economic prospects than the last," Reema Bhattacharya, head of Asia research at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC.

Across Asia, this proposition "is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain," she added.

At its core, the movement reflects "growing frustration over why the much-discussed demographic dividend has delivered uneven outcomes after more than a decade of political promises and expectations," Bhattacharya said.

India's economy has been under strain since the start of the Iran war, as energy supply disruptions have led to the weakening of the rupee against the dollar, and there are mounting concerns about slowing growth and rising inflation.

Against this backdrop, experts said job creation continues to be the biggest challenge facing the country with the world's highest youth population.

In an open letter in April, global equity research firm Bernstein warned Prime Minister Narendra Modi of a deepening employment crisis in the country. The rise of generative AI is also expected to slow down hiring in India's IT sector, while manufacturing jobs have not shown significant growth.

Other major economies in Asia, like China, are also facing diminished prospects for private sector jobs due to an economic slump and worsening business sentiment.

Through its social media handles, the CJP posts about the lack of development and rising unemployment. But the protest on Saturday will address recent discrepancies in crucial high school and entrance exams conducted by the government, which media reports say have affected millions of students.

"This party, this youth movement seeks accountability from the system," a Cockroach party spokesperson said at a press conference on Wednesday. He added that the "rot" in the system runs deep, and people are being vocal about it by supporting the party on social media.

The CJP is demanding the resignation of India's education minister, Dharmendra Pradhan, it said during the press conference.

India's leader of the opposition, Rahul Gandhi, has also raised the issue of mis-marked exams in a May 17 post on X, stating that Pradhan "has failed every single age group of India's students at once."

The discrepancies in exams have been "fairly disastrous," said Ashok Malik, partner at public policy think tank The Asia Group. "It is perhaps the biggest challenge the government has faced in 12 years," he added.

He also said the performance of the government on job creation has been inadequate but said that these issues have not dented the popularity of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi so far.

Last month, Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party achieved a historic election win in West Bengal, strengthening its grip on power even as the country faced economic challenges.

"The PM's predictability remains fairly high," Malik said, adding that if the protest on Saturday gathers a million people, it would be significant enough for investors to take notice.

Last time the Modi government faced stiff protests was in 2020 when it introduced farming reforms. After yearlong protests from farmers across the country, Modi repealed the controversial laws in November 2021. His government returned to power for a third term, but lost its outright majority.

"I don't think India is at risk [of political upheaval] since India is a vast and complex country where for any political outfit to make an impact, it needs serious physical presence and ground mobilization," said Ronojoy Sen, a senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies.

"Only an online presence won't do," he added, referring to the CJP's social media handles.