
Amid the 12 candidates, the approval rating gap between 1st and 2nd places is the lowest ever.
AI-generated summary
The Brazilian presidential election is structured so that if no one receives a majority of votes in the first round, the top two candidates hold a runoff election. This election will be contested between Lula and Bolsonaro, with 12 candidates running.
The presidential election that will determine the fate of Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, began on the 4th (local time).
Approximately 159 million voters will elect a new president who will lead Brazil for the next four years at polling stations in 26 states across the country.
With a total of 12 candidates running for president, the situation is unfolding with a two-way structure between incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula Dasiva (81) of the Workers' Party (PT) and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (45) of the Liberal Party (PL).
According to the results of Datapolya's presidential candidate support poll released the previous day, left-wing President Lula is in a close race with right-wing Senator Bolsonaro (42%) with an approval rating of 45%, within the margin of error.
Ronaldo Kaido (4%), Renan Santos (3%), and Augusto Curri (3%) follow, but no minor candidates have exceeded 5% approval rating.
This is the first time since 1989 that the gap between first and second place was narrowed to 3 percentage points (p) in Datapolya's first round of voting poll released the day before the presidential election.
The narrowest approval rating gap ever was in the 1989 presidential election between Fernando Collor and Lula, where Collor was ahead of Lula by 11 percentage points. Even in a survey conducted on the eve of the presidential election four years ago, the gap between Lula and Jair Bolsonaro reached 14 percentage points.
President Lula, who is running for his 7th presidential election, is seeking a 4th term in total. This is Flavio's first presidential bid, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
In particular, this presidential election is of great interest as to whether the 'right-wing storm' that has been sweeping Latin America in recent years will also reach Brazil. If Flavio wins, South America is expected to reach the peak of the 'blue tide' (right-wing wave of power).
Along with this presidential election, elections for the federal Senate, House of Representatives, governor, and state representatives will be held simultaneously. 281 candidates for the Senate and 7,053 candidates for the House of Representatives have registered. 169 people participated in the gubernatorial election.
The vote counting will begin at 5 p.m., and the outline of the winner is expected to be revealed this afternoon. As the two-way structure is more certain than ever, it is highly likely that the next president will emerge in the runoff election held on the 25th.
According to Brazilian election law, if no candidate receives a majority (more than 50%) of the votes in the first round, the top two candidates must hold a runoff election.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Runoff election likely on October 25th
Likely · Within weeks

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