Oil price expectations, decline in investor sentiment in Europe, and the return of Qatari energy shipments

Ryan Lance, Chairman of the Board of Directors of ConocoPhillips, said on Monday that he expects the minimum oil prices to rise to about $70 per barrel, and he believes that the price of US West Texas Intermediate crude at the middle of the economic cycle will range between $65 and $70 per barrel.

He added, during the Energy Intelligence conference held in London, that US oil production may exceed a range between 14 million and 14.5 million barrels per day if oil prices remain near their current levels.

Brent crude oil is currently trading above $100 per barrel, even with news of the return of pumping supplies from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz through other alternative routes into the markets.

Investor morale declined in the euro zone this October, with lower expectations for lowering interest rates, which raised doubts about the possibility of economic improvement, according to the Sentix survey, issued on Monday.

The Sentix index for the euro zone fell to 2.7 points in October, from 5.1 points last September, compared to analysts’ expectations of 5.0 points.

This comes after the index recorded its highest level in more than four years in September, according to Reuters.

According to “Sentix”, investors’ assessment of the current conditions remained stable, while the decline in the index was attributed to a “noticeable setback” in investors’ expectations.

The current situation assessment index stabilized at -3.3 points in October, while economic expectations fell by a full 5 points on a monthly basis to 8.8 points.

The Sentix survey confirmed that “in Germany, by contrast, hopes for an emerging economic improvement still exist, but here we also see a decline in expectations that should not be ignored.”

In Germany, the main Sentix index fell to -3.6 points, from -2.8 points, while the expectations index fell to 8.0 points, from 12.3 points in the previous month.

On the other hand, the index assessing the current situation in Germany rose for the fourth month in a row, recording its highest level since May 2023 at -14.5 points.

The survey included 1,030 investors, including 218 institutional investors, and was conducted during the period from October 1 to 3.

More LNG cargoes loaded from Ras Laffan reappeared outside the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, after transiting the waterway; Which reinforces the recent increase in the movement of Qatari liquefied natural gas shipments despite the ongoing security risks associated with the Iran war.

Four liquefied natural gas tankers carrying Qatari cargo appeared again outside the Strait of Hormuz between October 2 and 3, according to ship tracking data from Kpler and LSEG.

Three of these tankers - “Bu Samra”, “Al Qattara” and “Al Sadd” - are linked to Qatar Energy Company. Tracking data for the “Al Qattara” tanker currently indicates that it is headed to Zhejiang, China, while the “Al Sadd” tanker unloaded its cargo at the “Daheg” terminal in India on October 3.

As for the fourth tanker, Al Kharsaa, it is managed by Sea Peak Maritime, an independent owner and operator of gas tankers.

The four tankers were last seen inside the Strait of Hormuz between September 18 and 27. Many ships crossing the strait carry out what is called a “dark transit” by turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to avoid detection.

Meanwhile, another LNG tanker, the Al-Marouna - also operated by Sea Peak Maritime - appeared sailing unloaded within the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Qatar on October 2, after having previously been tracked outside the waterway.