Brazil votes in decisive presidential elections between Lula and Bolsonaro, closely followed by Trump

Brazilians began voting on Sunday to choose between leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his conservative rival, Flavio Bolsonaro, in a closely contested ballot that Donald Trump is watching “very closely,” because it will decide whether the largest Latin American countries will join the wave of shift toward the right in the region that the American president supports, or not.

From remote Amazon villages to agricultural lands in the south and slums in major cities, about 160 million Brazilian voters began casting their votes at eight in the morning Brasilia time (11:00 GMT), with polling stations closing at five in the evening (20:00 GMT).

This electoral process takes place amid intense polarization between two social approaches, one of which is represented by President Lula da Silva, while the other is represented by conservative Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. Conservatives have recently achieved successive victories in Latin America with Trump's encouragement and support, but the shift of the region's first economic power to the right will constitute a resounding turning point.

Lula, who is eighty years old, is seeking a fourth and final presidential term, stressing that Brazil's sovereignty is at stake in the face of American pressure. He is locked in a heated competition with Flavio Bolsonaro (45 years old), the son of his former opponent, far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest.

Flavio Bolsonaro was not known before his father put him in the spotlight when he was sentenced to 27 years in prison, for being convicted of attempting a coup after his defeat by Lula in the 2022 elections.

It is not expected that either opponent will achieve 50 percent of the votes necessary to decide the result in the first round. An opinion poll conducted by the Datafolha Institute, the results of which were published on Saturday evening, indicated that the outgoing president received 45 percent of the voting intentions in the first round, compared to 42 percent for his opponent, which means that they are almost equal if the margin of error is calculated. In this case, they will face each other in a second round on October 25.

Maria de Nazaré Azevedo, a 57-year-old government employee who lives in Rio de Janeiro, said: “I am very concerned about the direction the country is taking, because I want to be independent, and I do not want to be anyone’s colony,” she was quoted by Agence France-Presse. At the same polling station, Babiliana Figuera, a 40-year-old firefighter, said: “What we need is change. Many attacks occur in my workplace, and I have witnessed several incidents. “The most important thing is our security.”

“A little lost”

The election campaign witnessed more scandals and personal attacks than it witnessed discussion of programs, during which accusations of embezzlement of funds were exchanged, especially since Bolsonaro is the subject of an investigation into a case of corruption and money laundering. In 2018-2019, he spent more than 18 months in prison on corruption charges before his conviction was overturned for procedural reasons.

Many voters make their choice at the last minute. Julio Camargo (52 years old), who works in delivering orders in Brasilia, said: “I voted for Lula, but he is old, and I wanted something different this time.” But I will not vote for Bolsonaro... so I am a bit lost.” Lula, who returned to power in 2023, is known for his social programs that lifted millions out of poverty at the beginning of the millennium. He is armed with an unemployment rate that has reached historic lows, but voters complain about the cost of living and the spread of crime. It also significantly reduced deforestation in the Amazon, after Bolsonaro's presidency witnessed the destruction of the largest tropical forest in the world, sparking a wave of condemnation in the world.

American flags

Trump did not announce support for Bolsonaro, but his shadow loomed over the campaign; He has imposed severe customs duties and sanctions on Brazil since the trial of his ally, Jair Bolsonaro, and huge American flags and all kinds of symbols indicating the American president were seen at right-wing election rallies. Bolsonaro, who supports a close partnership with Washington, promised to get tough on crime and act decisively against rising public debt.

Carlos Roberto dos Santos (62 years old), a cattle farmer in the city of Baritos (southeast), said that he was tired of out-of-control public expenditures, stressing that he would vote for Bolsonaro. He explained: “They have a large number of social programs. “They will have to raise interest rates and introduce new taxes in order to pay off the debt.”

Voters in Brazil, which is witnessing a sharp division, are preparing to elect a new president on Sunday, in light of a heated competition between the current left-wing president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and the right-wing senator, Flavio Bolsonaro.

About 159 million people are eligible to cast their votes.

It is not expected that any of the candidates most likely to win will obtain the absolute majority needed to win decisively in the first round, which makes a runoff between them on October 25 likely.

The campaign focused on crime, the role of the state, the independence of the Supreme Court, and relations with the United States.

On the eve of the start of the first round of elections, Lula da Silva and his conservative rival concluded their election campaigns, on Saturday, with field tours to mobilize their supporters.

Lula da Silva (80 years old), who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive presidential term, chose the city of Sao Paulo in the southeast of the country to communicate with his voters.

Lula addressed his supporters, saying: “Tomorrow we will win the elections in the first round.”

Sao Paulo is the city where Lula da Silva concluded his election campaign four years ago, when he narrowly won in the second round over the far-right Jair Bolsonaro, the father of his main rival this year.

Jair Montero (60 years old) told Agence France-Presse while waiting for the president to arrive in the largest city in Latin America: “This last battle for Lula is like my personal battle.”

As for Flavio Bolsonaro (45 years old), he is participating in a motorcycle rally about 400 kilometers away.

He hopes to benefit from the conservative wave that has swept Latin America in recent years, as happened in Argentina and Colombia. US President Donald Trump is following the elections “closely.”

“Don't vote in two batches, do it all at once this Sunday,” Bolsonaro said in a video posted before the motorcycle rally.

“We need immediate change,” said Bolsonaro supporter Marcelo Berisime, a 50-year-old shop owner.

The latest opinion polls show a close proximity between the two main candidates, indicating that deciding the race between them will likely require a second round, which will be on October 25.

“Let's make Lula president again.”

In São Paulo, among the crowds of Lula’s supporters who wore red, the color of the Workers’ Party to which he belongs, some wore hats or wore T-shirts bearing the phrase “Make Lula President Again,” winking from the channel of Trump’s slogan “Make America Great Again.”

“Trump wants to make Brazil his backyard, and we have to stop him at all costs,” said Adriana Lima, a 44-year-old teacher. “That’s why these elections are important.”

Lula raised the slogan of sovereignty during his election campaign, and accused the Trump administration of seeking to seize Brazil's resources, including rare minerals.

Thiago Lororito, a 35-year-old accountant, said: “Brazil needs someone to defend the colors of our flag, not someone who wants to hand them over to the United States.”

Trump has not publicly expressed his support for Flavio Bolsonaro, but he received him at the White House in May.

Trump is an ally of Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest after being sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup.

“Trump should intervene”

Eliane Boscolo (47 years old), who wore a T-shirt bearing the words “God, Family, Homeland,” commented: “Trump should intervene.” (...) We do not live in a democracy today. We, the common people, cannot even live a decent life.”

Elian joined a park in the town of Santa Barbara Dueste, where motorcycles and ATVs were lined up in preparation for the procession, which was called the “Victory Parade.” The procession, led by Flavio Bolsonaro, is scheduled to travel approximately 20 kilometers to the neighboring town of Americana.

Lula and Bolsonaro exchanged continuous attacks during the election campaign, without recording direct confrontations between them during televised debates.

Flavio Bolsonaro seeks to exploit popular discontent with the government after 4 years during which the right held the left responsible for the high costs of living and insecurity.

The electoral debate was not limited to exchanging ideas, but rather it went beyond shedding light on various scandals, affecting even the conservative senator, who is in turn subject to investigation on charges of corruption and money laundering.

On the eve of the first round, some are still hesitant to make their decision, such as Patricia Catherine de Souza (35 years old), a resident of Rio de Janeiro, who said: “This political debate, for me, is a waste of time. But since the elections are tomorrow, I am studying things carefully so that I can vote wisely, lest I regret it later.”

The electoral campaign for the first round of the Brazilian presidential elections scheduled for Sunday is approaching its end, amid a tense atmosphere that saw a television debate canceled at the last minute.

Leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (80 years old) is seeking a fourth non-consecutive presidential term, while his main competitor will be right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (45 years old), the son of the far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2022).

US President Donald Trump said that he is following these “extremely important” elections in the largest country in Latin America “very closely,” according to Agence France-Presse.

Latin America has recently witnessed a remarkable rise of the right, with candidates who enjoy Trump's support coming to power, as in Colombia and Peru.

Lula is slightly ahead of Bolsonaro in opinion polls, but it appears that the competition will be intense between the two most likely candidates if a second round of elections is held on October 25.

In this second round, an opinion poll conducted by the Datafolha Foundation showed the current president’s lead in voting intentions by 48 percent, compared to 45 percent for his competitor.

TV Globo, the largest television network in Brazil, announced on Thursday evening that it had canceled its presidential debate at the last minute, shortly after Flavio Bolsonaro withdrew from it.

Lula had previously indicated that he would be absent from the debate, thus avoiding falling into the trap of confrontation with Bolsonaro's son and other less prominent right-wing candidates.

Flavio, through the “X” platform, denounced the “censorship” of the Supreme Electoral Court, which ruled that it is not permissible to leave an empty chair in the studio to indicate Lula’s absence. He believed that the court’s decision constituted “judicial interference in the elections.” Which leads to an “imbalance.”

Tensions later worsened after a backpack thrown in front of the Supreme Court in Brasilia raised fears that it contained an explosive device, before police officers ruled out any danger.

The court building is located in the famous “Three Powers” ​​Square in Brasilia, which also hosts the Planalto Presidential Palace and the Parliament.

Controversy over the country's patron saint

In the final phase of the election campaign, controversy erupted over Our Lady of Aparecida, the patron saint of Brazil, which has the second highest percentage of Christians in the world.

Publications widely circulated on social media stated that Bolsonaro would remove the title of patron saint of the country from Our Lady of Aparecida if he came to power. The majority of members of the Electoral Court approved, in an electronic vote, an order deleting these publications.

This issue is considered sensitive in a country where Our Lady of Aparecida is of great importance to Catholics, who are the majority and most likely to support Lula, according to opinion polls.

The controversial posts were based on a bill introduced by a conservative member of Congress in 2007, aimed at restricting the veneration of Our Lady of Aparecida to Catholics, but it was frozen the following year, and Lula stressed that “insulting Our Lady of Aparecida is unacceptable.”

"Sovereignty"

During the election campaign, Lula presented himself as a defender of Brazil's “sovereignty,” accusing Trump of trying to interfere in the elections.

Last year, Washington imposed high customs duties on Brazil, citing a persecution campaign against Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to 27 years in prison for trying to overthrow Lula in 2022.

Brazilian Attorney General Jorge Messias asked the police on Thursday to investigate a plan attributed to the US government to use public funds to promote the “far-right agenda” in Brazil.

The reason for this measure is due to an article published in the British newspaper The Guardian, which reported that Washington had allocated one million dollars to fund civil society organizations opposed to the Brazilian Supreme Court.