Japan's Liberal Democratic Party is in close contact with the People's Democratic Party... Laying the groundwork for ‘expanding the coalition next year’

There is analysis that Japan's ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party, has recently accepted the opposition People's Democratic Party's demands on various pending issues, setting the stage for expanding its coalition government next year.

On the 5th, the Nippon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) pointed out that the reason behind the Liberal Democratic Party's recent acceptance of the People's Democratic Party's demands for a reduction in the number of members of the House of Representatives and a reduction in gasoline subsidies was the intention to expand the coalition after the LDP presidential election next fall.

On the 4th, working-level officials from the Liberal Democratic Party, the People's Democratic Party, and the ruling coalition Japan Restoration discussed a bill to reform the electoral system within the National Assembly and decided to submit a bill to reduce the number of members of the House of Representatives to the National Assembly in the middle of this month. The plan is to reduce the number of proportional representation seats in the House of Representatives by 31 from 176 to 434 seats combined with district seats.

The Liberal Democratic Party and Yushinkai included a clause in the coalition agreement to 'reduce the number of members of the House of Representatives with a goal of 10%' and have been pursuing a plan to reduce 45 seats, or 10% of the total seats, only in proportional representation, not in single-member constituency districts.

However, when it was canceled in the last National Assembly due to opposition from the opposition party, a compromise plan was presented, which included lowering the reduction to 31 seats, changing the distribution of seats to a method that is relatively advantageous to small and medium-sized parties, and introducing an 'integrated list system', which attracted the approval of the People's Democratic Party.

The recently announced reduction in gasoline subsidies is also in line with the demands of the People's Democratic Party.

On the 29th of last month, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced that gasoline subsidies that began in March would be gradually reduced after the situation in the Middle East worsened due to the military conflict between the United States and Iran.

The reduction of gasoline subsidies was a request made directly to Prime Minister Takaichi by Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the National Democratic Party.

At the party leaders' debate held in May, Representative Tamaki said regarding gasoline subsidies, "Isn't it important to also present an exit strategy?"

There was discussion of a coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and the People's Democratic Party this summer, but it was canceled when the People's Democratic Party protested when the Takaichi government officially announced a temporary food consumption tax cut. There was also discussion of a coalition under the Fumio Kishida administration in 2022, but it did not materialize.

Even in this situation, the Liberal Democratic Party continues to flirt with the People's Democratic Party.

Shunichi Suzuki, secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party, said of the relationship with the People's Democratic Party at a September press conference, "I think it will go from cooperation on each policy to ultimately forming a coalition."

Masaji Matsuyama, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party's House of Councilors, also said at a press conference in September, "Shouldn't we keep the coalition in our sights and seriously pursue communication (with the People's Democratic Party)?"

The reason why the Liberal Democratic Party is considering a coalition with the People's Democratic Party is the issue of the number of seats in the House of Councilors.

In the House of Councilors, the Liberal Democratic Party and Yushinkai have 101 and 19 seats, respectively, which is less than the majority of 125 seats, but if you add the People's Democratic Party (25 seats), it is more than half.

The calculation is that if the People's Democratic Party participates in the coalition government, it will save the effort of seeking cooperation from the opposition party for each agenda item, thereby promoting the stability of the government.

Nikkei reported that some within the People's Democratic Party also have positive voices toward the coalition government.

An executive of the People's Democratic Party told Nikkei, "This agreement (on electoral system reform) can be said to be a big step toward a coalition. A coalition is necessary for political stability."

If a three-party coalition government is created, the influence of Yushinhoe, which has a strong right-wing tendency, may decline compared to now. This is because the combined number of seats of the Liberal Democratic Party and the People's Democratic Party in the House of Councilors constitutes a majority.

Yoshimura Hirofumi, leader of the Yushinkai, appeared to distance himself from the People's Democratic Party, saying in a program on Shizuoka Asahi TV on the 30th of last month, "Representative Tamaki is not very trustworthy to be honest because he changes his words often."