Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched a massive ground offensive in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and engaged in fierce fighting with Saudi-backed coalition forces. Amid the escalation, the price of oil on Wednesday exceeded $100 per barrel.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea is one of the key trade routes between the Persian Gulf, Asia and Europe. In the context of the war in the Middle East, it acquired particular importance for the export of Saudi oil.
According to Yemeni authorities, the Houthis have captured the coastal city of Moha, located less than 80 kilometers from the strait.
The escalation has been going on for a week, during which, according to AFP, more than 500 people, mostly military and members of armed groups, have died. 18.5 thousand people were forced to leave their homes.
The Houthi offensive is accompanied by strikes on Saudi Arabia. According to the Saudi coalition, rebels attacked the cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait and Jizan with ballistic missiles and drones. As a result of one of the latest attacks in the south of the kingdom, 73 civilians were injured.
Riyadh responds with massive airstrikes. The Houthis claim that in recent hours alone, Saudi aircraft have carried out about 40 strikes on the provinces of Taiz, Hodeidah, Al-Jawf and Marib.
Earlier this week, the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of carrying out a strike on the prison that, according to Yemen's health ministry, killed 32 people and trapped many prisoners under rubble.
The current escalation threatens to finally destroy the fragile truce that has kept Yemen's civil war at bay since 2022. The conflict began in 2014 after the Houthis captured the capital Sanaa, and the Saudi-led coalition intervened in March 2015.
Today, the Houthis remain the country's largest military force and control territory that is home to 60-65% of Yemen's population, according to Reuters estimates.
The new round of war also has global significance. Following Iran's virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia redirected a significant portion of its oil exports through the Red Sea. Now the Houthis' advance towards Bab al-Mandeb poses a threat to this route as well.
Amid the escalation, the price of oil on Wednesday exceeded $100 per barrel.
The situation is further complicated by the complex structure of the Yemeni conflict itself. The internationally recognized authority is represented by the Aden-based Presidential Governing Council, headed by Rashad al-Alimi. Tarek Saleh's National Resistance Forces are also opposing the Houthis. The Southern Transitional Council, which advocates independence for the south of Yemen, remains a separate force, and the influential Sunni Al-Islah party has historical ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.
The battle for Yemen's west coast thus becomes part of a much broader struggle for control of Middle East oil routes.
If the Houthis manage to gain a foothold directly at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the region’s two key maritime access to the global energy market will be at risk.
The strait is in the very south of the Red Sea and connects it with the Gulf of Aden and further with the Indian Ocean.
Its length is about 100 km, and the width at its narrowest point is only about 30 km. The strait separates Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula from Djibouti and Eritrea on the Horn of Africa.
The Red Sea is the most important sea corridor between Europe and Asia, so Bab el-Mandeb is traditionally one of the busiest shipping routes in the world.
Oil tankers and cargo ships pass through it to the Suez Canal and on to the Mediterranean Sea. This route allows you to shorten the journey from Asia to Europe and North America by thousands of kilometers.
In 2024, when the Houthis began attacking shipping in the Red Sea amid the war in Gaza, traffic through the Suez Canal dropped sharply and has yet to recover to previous levels.
