Taipei mayoral race is tight, with Chiang Wanan and Shen Boyang just 1.2 percentage points behind

With sixty-six days to go until the nine-in-one election, the People's Association yesterday released the latest Taipei mayoral election poll conducted by polling expert Dai Li'an who was responsible for questionnaire design and analysis. The current Taipei mayor Chiang Wanan won 41. 7% support, Shen Boyang 40. Five percent, a gap of one between the two sides. At 2 percentage points, the two people showed a high degree of seesaw in five or five waves. In terms of gender ratio analysis, Shen Boyang was favored by male voters, while Jiang was ahead of Shen Si among women's votes. Two percentage points; in the blue-green constituencies, Chiang Kai-shek defeated Shen Shiwu in Datong District. Eight percentage points, Shen Ze slightly beat Jiang Yi in Da'an District. One percentage point.

There are five or five high-level seesaws.

Opinion polls show that Chiang Wanan’s administrative satisfaction rate is 52%. Four percent, dissatisfaction level 41. 6%; in terms of suitability to serve as mayor of Taipei, 50% of the people surveyed think Chiang is suitable, but not 38. Three percent; forty-six. Two percent think Shen Boyang is suitable, but not thirty-two. Five percent. Suitability is related to but not equal to support. If the public thinks that they are not suitable to hold the position, they will usually not vote for it.

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42% hope to change party and do it

In terms of voting support, Jiang Wanan is 41. Seven%, Shen Boyang 40. 5%, the gap is within the margin of error of the poll; but as many as 57% are optimistic about Chiang being elected mayor. 8%, only 21% are optimistic about Shen Boyang. three%.

As for whether the mayor of Taipei should change political parties this time, 42% of the people surveyed support changing to the Democratic Progressive Party, while 38% support the Kuomintang to continue to be mayor.

In terms of age, those between 20 and 49 years old tend to support Shen Boyang; among them, those between 20 and 29 years old support Shen Boyang at 42. Eight percent, Jiang Wanan thirty-seven. 3%; 30 to 39 years old, Shen support is 43. One%, Jiang thirty-six. 3%; forty to forty-nine years old, Shen support is 46. Six percent, Jiang 40. Five percent; those over fifty tend to support Chiang.

Among male voters, Shen Boyang ranked 43. Three percent of the support was slightly ahead of Jiang Wanan's 41%; among female voters, Chiang's support was 42%. Three percent leads Shen's 38. one%.

Cross-analyzing the battle situation in each administrative region, Jiang Wanan has the most significant lead in Songxin; Shen Boyang has the upper hand in Shilin, Wanhua, Zhongshan, and Ganghu. However, in the traditional green camp advantageous constituencies, Jiang Wanan won 47.7% in Datong District. 3%, but it fell sharply first to 31. five%.

In Da'an, Wenshan and Da'an districts, which were originally regarded as Lanying railway ticket areas, Shen Boyang even ranked them as 44. Three percent is slightly ahead of Jiang Wanan’s 43. 2%; Wenshan District was led by Chiang Kai-shek with 43%. Two percent ahead of Shen's 35. eight%.

The above-mentioned poll was entrusted by the Trustees Association to design and analyze the questionnaire, and Beacon Market Research Company conducted the telephone interview. From the 16th to the 18th, the survey targets were people registered in Taipei City and over the age of 20. 1,076 people were successfully interviewed (752 people from residential phones and 324 people from mobile phones). The maximum sampling error was plus or minus three. 0%.