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Back美期中選舉影響中東情勢 真主黨開心:我們迎來1個很好的機會
美期中選舉影響中東情勢 真主黨開心:我們迎來1個很好的機會
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自由时报19 minutes agoWorld2 min readChinaView translation

美期中選舉影響中東情勢 真主黨開心:我們迎來1個很好的機會

Quick Look

黎巴嫩真主黨領袖卡西姆表示,美國中期選舉共和黨失利、川普敗選,為真主黨及中東其他反美勢力帶來機會。以色列國會選舉中納坦雅胡陣營未取得過半席次,前參謀總長艾森科特獲指派籌組新政府。真主黨與以色列衝突已造成超過4300人死亡,雙方6月達成的框架協議執行陷入停滯。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

美國中期選舉中共和黨失去參議院與眾議院控制權,民主黨掌控國會。真主黨過去曾主導黎巴嫩政治局勢,但於3月攻擊以色列後,以色列展開大規模空襲及地面入侵。黎巴嫩與以色列於6月在美國斡旋下達成框架協議,包括以色列軍隊逐步撤離及解除真主黨武裝,但執行進度已陷入停滯。

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共和黨在美國期中選舉遭到挫敗,參議院與眾議院控制權落入民主黨之手。針對共和黨在美國期中選舉大敗,黎巴嫩真主黨領袖卡西姆(Naim Qassem)11日表示,共和黨在選舉大敗對真主黨以及中東地區其他反美勢力而言是1個機會。

根據《法新社》報導,卡西姆在直播演說中說「今天,我們迎來了1個很好的機會。川普在選舉中落敗了,美國發生了政治大地震。那些與伊朗、黎巴嫩、巴勒斯坦及葉門對抗的人已經輸了,川普也無法再像過去那樣繼續行事。」

卡西姆指出,川普的敗選對中東地區反美勢力產生影響,而這些影響在某種程度上是正面的。卡西姆補充,身為川普盟友的以色列總理納坦雅胡,也在近期的選舉中遭遇挫敗。

以色列於10月27日舉行國會大選,納坦雅胡所屬陣營取得的席次遠低於維持執政所需的61席。此後以色列總統赫佐格(Isaac Herzog)已指派納坦雅胡政敵、以色列前國防軍參謀總長艾森科特(Gadi Eisenkot)嘗試籌組新政府。

真主黨過去曾主導黎巴嫩的政治局勢,但真主黨於3月攻擊以色列後,以色列展開大規模空襲及地面入侵。黎巴嫩表示,以色列軍事行動已造成超過4300人死亡。

以色列仍持續佔領黎巴嫩南部的大片土地。黎巴嫩與以色列於6月在美國斡旋下達成1項框架協議,內容包括以色列軍隊逐步撤離,以及解除真主黨的武裝,但協議的執行進度目前已陷入停滯。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 艾森科特將嘗試籌組以色列新政府

    Likely · Within weeks

  • 黎以框架協議執行將繼續停滯

    Possible · Within months

Open Questions

  • 艾森科特能否成功籌組新政府
  • 真主黨是否會利用美國政治變局採取具體行動
  • 黎以框架協議是否能恢復執行
  • 以色列是否會從黎巴嫩南部撤軍

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