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Back中国前10个月贸易顺差突破1万亿美元
中国前10个月贸易顺差突破1万亿美元
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纽约时报中文网37 minutes agoBusiness3 min readChinaView translation

中国前10个月贸易顺差突破1万亿美元

出口激增推动顺差超越去年创纪录速度,伊朗袭击推高油价

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中国政府宣布,今年前10个月贸易顺差达到1.04万亿美元,超越去年创纪录速度。出口激增35.2%,受绿色能源产品和数据中心设备强劲需求推动。伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡袭击船只推高国际油价。贸易顺差也反映国内经济疲软,房地产市场崩溃导致家庭削减消费。

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Why It Matters

中国前10个月贸易顺差达到1.04万亿美元,超越去年创纪录速度。出口激增受绿色能源产品和数据中心设备需求推动。中美在1月10日前放宽关税并限制出口管制,使9月特朗普与习近平在华盛顿达成的协议生效。国内房地产市场崩溃,过去五年全国房价下跌约40%。

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中国政府周二宣布,由于出口持续急剧攀升,今年前10个月,中国贸易顺差激增突破1万亿美元,超越了去年创纪录的速度。

随着伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡袭击船只推高了国际油价,从太阳能电池板到电动汽车,中国发现全球对绿色能源产品存在强劲需求。中国还从人工智能数据中心的繁荣中获利,中国制造了除最强大的半导体外的大部分数据中心设备。

海关总署表示,今年前10个月中国贸易顺差达到1.04万亿美元,其中10月出口额超过进口额1053亿美元,推动贸易顺差大幅增长。由于油价居高不下,10月数据较9月有所收窄。此外,为保障自身供应,中国限制了对周边国家的柴油、航空煤油和其他成品油出口。

上个月出口额同比激增35.2%,其中电缆、机架和其他用于其他国家数据中心的设备出货量强劲。进口额跳升41.6%,包括大量用于中国自身人工智能基础设施建设的电子产品。

这些数据发布的前一天,华盛顿和北京采取了多项措施,在1月10日前放宽关税并限制出口管制的使用,从而使两国高级官员于9月特朗普总统与中国最高领导人习近平的华盛顿峰会前达成的一项协议生效。

中国不断扩大的贸易顺差部分反映了其出口的显著竞争力。低廉的劳动力成本和对最新自动化技术的巨额投资维持了较低的生产成本。世界一流的基础设施使得将货物从中国各地运往国际市场的成本低廉。中国疲软的货币也有助于中国商品在遥远的市场中保持价格优势。

中国还通过退税为出口商提供帮助,这目前消耗了政府近八分之一的税收收入。

然而,贸易顺差也是中国国内经济疲软的一种表现。该国房地产市场正在缓慢崩溃,过去五年全国房价下跌了约40%,这摧毁了许多中产阶级的毕生积蓄。

由于不信任股票、债券和共同基金,中国家庭曾将大约五分之四的储蓄投资于公寓,结果却发现房地产并不像人们普遍认为的那样是一项安全投资。这已促使许多中国家庭通过削减从汽车到家用电器等各种商品的购买来节约开支。

与此同时,中国的国家自力更生运动进一步减少了其对进口的需求。“随着供应链继续在中国建立,对外来零部件的需求正在减少,”总部位于新加坡、支持自由贸易的机构韩礼士基金会贸易政策负责人黛博拉·埃尔姆斯说。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 中美关税放宽和出口管制限制将在1月10日前生效

    Very likely · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • 贸易顺差的具体构成细节是什么?
  • 中美协议的具体条款是什么?
  • 中国限制柴油和航空煤油出口的具体范围和期限是什么?

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This article was originally published by 纽约时报中文网.

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