10-year Treasury yield jumps back above 5% as oil gains, more Fed hikes expected
Rising oil prices and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes drive Treasury yields higher.
Quick Look
- Treasury yields climbed on Thursday, with the 10-year note exceeding 5% amid rising oil prices and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
- Investors are also awaiting upcoming producer price inflation and home sales data.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The 10-year Treasury yield is a benchmark for consumer debt. Recent inflation data has shifted investor expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate policy.
U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Thursday, with the 10-year again topping 5%, alongside a move higher in oil prices and expectations of further Federal Reserve hikes ahead.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note — the benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt — was up 4 basis points at 5.032%. It earlier hit 5.0583%, its highest level since Oct. 22.
The 2-year Treasury note yield, which is more sensitive to short-term Fed interest rate decisions, was 7 basis points higher at 4.797%. The longer-dated 30-year Treasury note yield — which often moves on geopolitical developments — rose 2 basis points to 5.37%.
One basis point equals 0.01%, or 1/100th of 1%, and yields and prices move inversely to one another.
The rise in oil prices came after President Donald Trump said, "we don't need a deal with Iran," raising concerns that an end to the war was not in sight. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 0.38% to $86.86 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.99% to $93.60 per barrel.
Meanwhile, Tuesday's hotter-than-expected consumer price index reading has investors anticipating more rate increases from the Fed. Goldman Sachs added another rate hike to its forecast on Wednesday, now expecting an adidtional a 25-basis-point increase in March. Traders are pricing in 100% odds of an increase in December, with roughly 13% calling for a 50 basis point hike, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
More domestic data will be released this week, which will provide fresh insights into the U.S. economic picture.
On Friday, the latest monthly producer price inflation print, which tracks wholesale inflation, is expected to show a 0.4% rise in October, down from the 1.3% surge in September.
Before that, investors are also looking out for October's home sales report from the National Association of Realtors, due later Thursday. Existing home sales rose by 1.5% in September to 3.99 million, up from a two-year low the previous month, and are expected to reach 4 million last month, according to Trading Economics estimates.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Release of October producer price inflation data on Friday.
Very likely · Within days
Open Questions
- Will the producer price inflation print meet expectations?
- Will home sales reach the 4 million mark?







