
AI-generated summary
The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are key transportation hubs for global crude oil, and a collision here immediately leads to an increase in oil prices. Recently, the armed conflict between Iran and the U.S. military has intensified, and concerns about supply disruptions are growing as Yemen's Houthi rebels target Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure.
(New York = Yonhap News) Correspondent Soo-jeong Lim = In addition to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, energy facilities on the Red Sea coast west of Saudi Arabia were attacked, causing international oil prices to soar to close to $100 per barrel on the 8th (local time).
On this day, the closing price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery on the London ICE Futures Exchange recorded $97.92 per barrel, up $0.92 (0.95%) from the previous day.
Brent crude oil soared to $99.46 per barrel during the day, hitting its highest level since July 24.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the closing price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (WTI) futures for October delivery was $93.03 per barrel, up $1.55 (1.69%) from the previous trading session.
As risks in the Middle East were highlighted again during the weekend and the US Labor Day holiday, oil prices rose and risk aversion increased.
On the 5th, the U.S. military struck three Iranian crude oil transport ships in response to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) firing ballistic missiles at two U.S. Navy warships patrolling the waters.
Then, the Revolutionary Guard claimed that it attacked three oil tankers and U.S.-linked ships using unauthorized routes, and also attacked a U.S. aircraft carrier and a destroyer with several ballistic missiles.
With the news that Yemen's pro-Iranian rebels, the Houthis, carried out large-scale retaliatory strikes targeting Saudi Arabia's state-run oil company Aramco facilities and air force bases on this day, concerns about disruption in crude oil supply grew.
โOil market participants are now pricing in the possibility of further prolonged shipping disruptions,โ said Hamad Hussein, senior economist at research firm Capital Economics.
Foreign investment banks (IBs) are also successively raising their oil price forecasts to reflect the possibility that the crude oil supply disruption in the Middle East will be prolonged.
Goldman Sachs predicted that maritime transportation disruptions in the Middle East will continue until next year, and raised its forecasts for Brent crude oil and WTI by $5 per barrel for the end of this year and 2027, respectively.
In particular, it was predicted that if crude oil production in the Gulf region remained at an average of 4 million barrels per day lower than before the war, the price of Brent crude oil could exceed $120 per barrel.
Bank of America (BofA) predicted that if the conflict limiting crude oil supplies continues until the end of the year, Brent crude oil could trade in the range of $95 to $120 per barrel, and if it develops into a widespread conflict that damages key energy infrastructure, it could soar as high as $150.
AI outlook โ possibilities, not facts
Brent crude oil will trade in the range of $95 to $120 per barrel until the end of the year.
Likely ยท Within months
If Gulf oil production remains at an average of 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, Brent crude oil could rise above $120 per barrel.
Possible ยท Within months

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