(Washington = Yonhap News) Correspondent Hong Jeong-gyu = There has been speculation that a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could be held as early as November or December of this year.
In a talk held on the 3rd (local time) hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank in Washington DC, former commander of US Forces Korea Vincent Brooks emphasized, “We must recognize that signals are constantly being sent (from North Korea).”
North Korea is "leaving the door open" for dialogue in that it is not using the "insulting expressions" it uses toward South Korea toward the United States, and it is a signal that it is "not ready right now" in that it would have sent a different signal if it was ready for dialogue.
Former Commander Brooks predicted, “Both sides (North America) will want to establish points of contact this fall, and then have an opportunity to have substantive follow-up discussions.”
At the same time, he predicted that “the earliest possible time (for a North American summit) will be between November, when the U.S. midterm elections are held, and December, when the G20 summit is held in the U.S.”
However, he said, “The earlier the meeting is held, the stronger the nature of ‘showing off’, and the later it is delayed, the more likely it is to contain substantive content,” adding, “It is more likely that it will be after both schedules (midterm elections and G20 meeting) have passed.”
Former Commander Brooks said, "I do not agree with the claim that North Korea's denuclearization is impossible," and argued that from North Korea's perspective, denuclearization is not impossible if "one security guarantee (nuclear armament) can be exchanged for another form of security guarantee."
Victor Cha, CSIS Korea Chair, said, "North Korea's response so far has not been positive, but at the same time, it is conditional," and diagnosed that Chairman Kim's younger sister Kim Yo-jong's remarks were "playing the same hardliner role as usual but leaving the door open."
Chairman Cha predicted, “From North Korea’s perspective, since President (Trump) is likely to be weakened after the midterm elections in November, they will think that their leverage will become stronger after that,” and added, “North Korea will definitely wait for the results of the midterm elections before the meeting.”
Chairman Cha predicted that President Trump may plan an event to invite Chairman Kim to the G20 summit held in the U.S. mainland. This year's G20 Summit will be held on December 14-15 at the Trump National Doral Resort in Miami, Florida.
He said he could imagine “a situation where Trump invites North Korea to the G20,” and added, “If that happens, it will be an event that can attract attention from around the world with the United States hosting the G20.”
Next, Cha analyzed that although the North Korea-US summit during Trump's first term ended without results and, unlike at the time, North Korea, backed by support from China and Russia, will not respond to the talks, North Korea still has sufficient incentives to participate in the talks.
He pointed out, “Meeting with the United States can make North Korea’s position vis-à-vis both China and Russia more advantageous by showing that they have an active hedging, or alternative relationship.”
He also said, “North Korea has been watching what the United States has done in Iran and Venezuela, and potentially what it could do in Cuba. From North Korea’s perspective, it also makes sense to maintain some kind of point of contact with President (Trump) to minimize the possibility of something like that happening to them.”
Chairman Cha also argued that South Korea's push to enrich and reprocess nuclear submarines and nuclear materials could provide impetus for North Korea to engage in dialogue with the United States.
He also refuted the interpretation that President Trump's recent unilateral reduction in joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States was a preemptive 'concession' for North Korea-US talks, saying it was a "corresponding measure (by the United States) to North Korea's failure to conduct nuclear tests or long-range ballistic missile tests during the second Trump administration."
On the other hand, former Commander Brooks said that reducing ROK-US training was effective in opening the door to dialogue between North Korea and the US, but pointed out that reducing training was "an extremely disrespectful act toward the alliance" and undermined the military's readiness, America's security promise, and deterrence effect against North Korea, China, and Russia.
He continued, “That is why the trilateral exercise (Freedom Edge) between Korea, Japan, and the United States scheduled to be held next week is especially important. It is very important that the exercise is not canceled.”
