"Divide and conquer." The West is split over the diesel deal. What opportunities does this open for Russia?

The scolding of the United States and Europe over the diesel deal is beneficial to Russia, as it shows the collapse of the West’s unified line on the Ukrainian conflict. This assessment was made in a commentary to Lente.ru by Stanislav Tkachenko, professor of the Department of European Studies, Faculty of International Relations, St. Petersburg State University (SPbSU), Valdai Club expert.

On October 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Donald Trump agreed on the supply of Russian diesel fuel to the American and world markets. For this purpose, Washington temporarily (until April 2027) weakened sanctions against Moscow.

However, the news of the Russia-US deal caused an extremely negative reaction from Europe. Immediately after the first reports of the agreement, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky held telephone conversations with a number of European leaders. Some directly criticized the Russian-American agreements.

German authorities accused the United States of undermining the strategy of “pressure” on Russia. “Every euro, every dollar that comes in the form of energy purchases to the Russian treasury will be used to produce new weapons that will be used against Ukraine,” said German Minister for European Affairs Günther Kriechbaum.

In addition, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said she would demand that the United States introduce new sanctions against Russia.

“Of course, the United States is our largest ally, but our message is clear: to end this conflict, we must increase pressure on Russia. Therefore, we will call on the United States to impose sanctions against Russia,” the politician noted.

The discontent of European officials met with resistance from Washington. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent directly accused the allies of hypocrisy.

He explained that the Europeans “gave Russia more money than Ukraine” because they cannot refuse Russian energy resources.

How will the split between the US and Europe affect Russia?

As Tkachenko noted, the dispute between the United States and Europe speaks of a final split and failure of the West’s united line against Russia.

“The split became obvious after the second election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States, but its dynamics were not stable; periods of transatlantic tariff wars and calls for Europe to “pay for its own security” were followed by periods of active support from Washington for Ukraine,” the researcher emphasized.

According to the expert, the dispute between Washington and European capitals opens up new opportunities for Russia in foreign policy: “We can talk about returning the balance of power between Russia, the United States and China, where each side recognizes the impossibility of an armed conflict with the prospect of a nuclear war.”

In particular, Tkachenko recalled the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin about nuclear weapons. On October 1, the Russian leader issued a warning to the West: in the event of an attack on Kaliningrad, the entire arsenal of weapons would be used. Putin recalled that today no one has the kind of weapons that Russia has.

These words, the political scientist pointed out, are pushing the United States towards more cautious behavior and pragmatic relations with Russia.

Can Europe negotiate with Russia?

Amid the dissatisfaction of European politicians with the diesel deal, the opposition, on the contrary, called for cooperation with Russia.

For example, Claudia Wittig, a member of the Union for Social Justice and a Smart Economy (BSW) party in the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt, called on Germany to follow the example of the United States and achieve a similar agreement.

The parliamentarian noted the high prices at gas stations in Germany and added that the sanctions policy towards Moscow had failed. According to the deputy, the restrictions primarily harm Germany itself.

Also, the leader of the French Patriots party, Florian Philippot, called on his fellow citizens to immediately agree to the supply of Russian diesel fuel.

“France must immediately accept this Russian diesel fuel to reduce prices! EU against? Let's get out of it! Will Zelensky yell? Spit!" - he spoke out.

As Tkachenko noted, a number of European countries may enter into their own diesel deals with Russia in the future.

“Europeans have gained nothing from the freezing of Russian assets; they have lost free access for their goods to the Russian market. And now, during a period of extremely high prices for gas and oil products, as well as positive examples of countries buying energy resources from Russia - Slovakia, Serbia, Turkey - are forcing the governments of other countries to look more calmly at the prospect of restoring trade with Russia on a fair basis,” the expert concluded.

What are they saying about the diesel deal in Russia?

On October 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that Moscow is ready to supply oil and petroleum products to the American and world markets.

“I am confident that this will have a positive impact on the entire global economy,” the head of state noted.

As Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, Russia may increase exports of diesel fuel in November and December as repair work at oil refineries is completed. According to him, the Russian side positively assesses the actions of the United States aimed at stabilizing the global energy market and restoring normal trade in energy resources.

In addition, the special representative of Russian President Vladimir Putin for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, Kirill Dmitriev, noted that the Russian-American diesel deal will benefit the whole world.