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Back《鏡新聞》民調領先李四川達14.9% 蘇巧慧競辦:正面陽光選戰獲多數市民認同
《鏡新聞》民調領先李四川達14.9% 蘇巧慧競辦:正面陽光選戰獲多數市民認同
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自由时报10 minutes agoPolitics2 min readChinaView translation

《鏡新聞》民調領先李四川達14.9% 蘇巧慧競辦:正面陽光選戰獲多數市民認同

一定會投票民眾中,蘇巧慧支持度達55.5%,領先李四川21.0%

Quick Look

鏡新聞公布新北市長民調,民進黨候選人蘇巧慧以47.7%支持度領先國民黨候選人李四川的32.8%,領先幅度達14.9個百分點;在一定會投票的民眾中,蘇巧慧以55.5%領先李四川的34.5%,差距擴大至21.0個百分點。調查由大地民意研究公司執行,樣本數1,087份,誤差正負2.97個百分點。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

鏡新聞委託大地民意研究公司,於2026年11月1日至2日進行新北市長民調,訪問戶籍設於新北市且年滿20歲以上的民眾,採用市話訪問,依新北市各行政區人口比例抽出電話號碼,共完成有效樣本1,087份,在95%信心水準下,抽樣誤差為正負2.97個百分點,加權方式依據內政部最新人口統計資料,考量性別、年齡、教育程度及行政區進行多重反覆加權。

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《鏡新聞》今天公布最新的新北市長民調,民進黨候選人蘇巧慧以47.7%,領先國民黨候選人李四川的32.8%,領先幅度達14.9%,此外,在一定會投票的民眾中,蘇也以55.5%領先李四川的34.5%,對此,蘇巧慧競選總部發言人劉芳宇表示,這證明蘇巧慧始終堅持正面陽光的選戰方向,得到多數新北市民的認同。

劉芳宇指出,從蘇巧慧陸續在多項民調呈現領先後,對手陣營從上到下、從主席、候選人到競選幹部,均不斷在記者會或舉辦活動時做負面攻擊,但蘇巧慧始終堅持正面陽光的選舉,不但在各種演說中只說願景、不做攻擊,更希望競選團隊把所有的精力花費在擬定政策、發揮創意,讓競選活動更有趣、吸引更多市民參與。

她表示,本次民調也呈現,一定會去投票的民眾有55.5%支持蘇巧慧、34.5%支持李四川,蘇巧慧的支持度較李四川高出21.0%,顯然支持蘇巧慧的民眾較有熱情,對於蘇巧慧展現出來的政見願景、創意和活力有更強烈的認同,「而李四川在政見上不但常常出包,北市府時代的專業人設也因大巨蛋漏水、天價遮陽傘延宕等多項工程缺失而受到質疑,雙方的差距愈拉愈大也就不足為奇」。

劉芳宇強調,選戰剩下最後23天,蘇巧慧團隊會把握時間,持續到新北各地報告我們的政見,讓更多市民知道蘇巧慧是更有協調力、更有創造力、更有照顧市民能力的市長人選,希望市民給蘇巧慧機會,帶領新北迎接新時代。

該次調查民調公司為大地民意研究股份有限公司,主持人為大地民意研究公司總經理翁紹桓。委託單位與經費來源為鏡新聞。調查時間為2026年11月1日至2日,訪問對象為戶籍設於新北市且年滿20歲以上的民眾,採用市話訪問,依新北市各行政區人口比例抽出電話號碼,共完成有效樣本1,087份,在95%信心水準下,抽樣誤差為正負2.97個百分點。加權方式依據內政部最新人口統計資料,考量性別、年齡、教育程度及行政區進行多重反覆加權。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 蘇巧慧競選團隊將在剩餘23天持續到新北各地報告政見,爭取更多選民支持

    Very likely · Within days

  • 李四川在政見表現上的爭議可能持續受到質疑

    Likely · Within days

Open Questions

  • 李四川競選團隊對此次民調結果的回應為何?
  • 剩餘23天選戰中,兩位候選人將採取什麼具體策略?
  • 其他民調機構的結果是否與此次民調一致?

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