Oman achieves a budget surplus during the third quarter with revenue growth of 16%

The general budget of the Sultanate of Oman recorded a financial surplus of about 90 million Omani riyals, by the end of the third quarter of 2026, with public revenues increasing by 16 percent on an annual basis, to reach 9 billion and 828 million Omani riyals ($25.53 billion), compared to about 8 billion and 481 million Omani riyals during the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in oil and non-oil revenues.

The financial performance bulletin, issued by the Omani Ministry of Finance, showed that public spending increased by 9 percent, reaching about 9 billion and 738 million Omani riyals by the end of the third quarter, compared to about 8 billion and 914 million Omani riyals during the same period in 2025, an increase of 824 million Omani riyals, as a result of the increase in various spending items, according to the Omani News Agency.

In terms of oil revenues, net oil revenues increased by 7 percent until the end of the third quarter of 2026, reaching about 5 billion and 46 million Omani riyals, compared to about 4 billion and 710 million Omani riyals during the same period last year. The average achieved oil price reached $81 per barrel, while the average production reached one million and 102 thousand barrels per day.

Net gas revenues also increased by 61 percent, reaching about two billion and 88 million Omani riyals, compared to one billion and 296 million Omani riyals during the same period in 2025.

The bulletin indicated that the current revenues collected increased by 7 percent until the end of the third quarter of the current year, to reach two billion and 614 million Omani riyals, compared to two billion and 449 million Omani riyals during the same period last year.

In terms of spending, current expenses increased by about 394 million Omani riyals, to reach 6 billion and 621 million Omani riyals, compared to 6 billion and 227 million Omani riyals at the end of the third quarter of 2025.

Development expenditures for ministries, civil units and economic transformation projects amounted to about one billion and 224 million Omani riyals until the end of the third quarter of 2026, equivalent to about 94 percent of the total development expenditures allocated for the year, amounting to 1.3 billion Omani riyals.

The total contributions and other expenditures recorded about one billion and 723 million Omani riyals until the end of the third quarter of the current year, an increase of 139 million Omani riyals, or 9 percent, compared to one billion and 584 million Omani riyals during the same period in 2025.

With regard to government support, the support allocated to the social protection system amounted to about 486 million Omani riyals, while support for the electricity sector reached 441 million Omani riyals, and support for petroleum products reached 280 million Omani riyals, until the end of the third quarter of the current year. The amount transferred to the item allocated for repaying debts amounted to about 225 million Omani riyals, while the expenses under settlement reached about 170 million Omani riyals.

In terms of private sector receivables, the value of paid receivables, which completed their documentary cycle through the financial system, exceeded one billion and 434 million Omani riyals by the end of the third quarter of 2026.

This comes within the framework of the Ministry of Finance’s commitment to pay private sector dues that have completed their documentary cycle within five working days on average.

Regarding public debt, the bulletin showed its decline to about 14.1 billion Omani riyals by the end of the third quarter of 2026, compared to 14.7 billion Omani riyals during the same period in 2025, a decrease of more than 600 million Omani riyals.

The German Federal Statistical Office confirmed on Wednesday that the country's inflation rate slowed to 2.8 percent during last October, according to final data.

Preliminary data issued by the office last month showed inflation declining on an annual basis to 2.8 percent in October, compared to 3.3 percent in September, according to Reuters.

These figures are based on the Harmonized Index of Inflation, allowing comparisons with inflation rates in other EU countries.

“Inflation in October returned to just under 3 percent,” said Ruth Brand, head of the Census Bureau.

She added: “High energy prices continued to have a major impact on the inflation rate, although the new reduction in fuel prices, which took effect in early October, likely contributed to limiting the price rise to some extent.”

On a monthly basis, overall consumer prices declined by 0.2 percent during October 2026, compared to September of the same year.

Goldman Sachs has revised its expectations for the path of US interest rates, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next March, after inflation data in October came in higher than expected, prompting the bank to abandon its previous estimates that the interest rate hike cycle will end in December.

Goldman Sachs thus joins Deutsche Bank, which in turn expects an additional increase in interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in January, in addition to the two increases that are likely to occur in December and March, according to Reuters.

Inflation data released on Tuesday represented the third consecutive upward surprise; The increase in prices was higher than market expectations for the third month in a row. In this context, the entire markets are pricing in the possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike on December 9, according to the CME Group’s “Feed Watch” tool.

The rise in inflation is driven by the increase in oil prices against the backdrop of the war with Iran, the customs duties imposed by US President Donald Trump on imports, the continued strength of consumer demand, in addition to strong investments in the field of artificial intelligence.

The high cost of living also contributed to increased voter dissatisfaction, and was one of the factors that contributed to the significant losses suffered by Trump's Republican Party in the midterm elections last week.

Goldman Sachs said that raising interest rates for a third time seems more likely in March compared to January, expecting inflation to decline until the end of the year, before price pressures rise again at the beginning of the new year, as a result of renewed seasonal pressures on prices and continued rising costs.

“It is possible that the energy shock will be largely over by the March meeting, or even the January meeting,” said David Merkel, chief US economist at Goldman Sachs. “But we believe that the latest inflation readings will prompt most FOMC members to point to a third increase in interest rates in their forecast chart issued in December.”

The bank revised its expectations regarding the start of lowering interest rates, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will begin the monetary easing cycle in December 2027, that is, 3 months after its previous estimates, followed by additional cuts in March, June, and September 2028.