There is a kind of tussle going on at the moment regarding which direction the world economy will go next. Two forces are working completely opposite to each other.
On one hand, recurring crises such as energy crisis, trade conflicts and actual wars are hindering economic growth. Its clearest impact is on the developed economies of the world, where interest expenses have increased rapidly.
On the other hand, large-scale expenditure on Artificial Intelligence i.e. AI is boosting the economy.
Along with this, the way small economies in particular have faced the difficult situation is surprising. Due to need, new trade routes including oil and gas have also been created.
China's fear clearly visible in IMF meetings
These issues were discussed repeatedly in the meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held in Bangkok this week. People who take major decisions related to the world economy also kept talking about these.
But even they do not know in which direction the situation will go next.
At present, it is no less than a bet to guess which country the bond market will focus on next. Right now his focus seems to be on America and France.
However, France's Finance Minister Roland Lescure is telling the world that he had no problem in raising the loan. For this he had to pay more than before, but he said that there would be no problem in his budget.
He also said that perhaps he has helped in saving the G-7 group of developed countries. A year ago, this group was in danger of breaking up amid the tension created by Donald Trump.
In a way, it is a miracle that there was no economic recession in the world nor was there a debt crisis in any major emerging economy.
The Finance Minister of Thailand was boasting to me that the cost of borrowing for his country has increased very little, especially compared to America.
Another surprising thing is that the bond market has now stopped considering Britain as a 'naughty student'. On the contrary, IMF is calling him an ideal student.
The IMF has accepted the British government's budget plans in the same form in which they were presented. He has trusted these plans.
The reality is that the rest of the G-7 countries do not even have that much confidence. Which one looks better depends on comparison and this is especially true in the case of loans.
Britain's figures better than expected
This occasion gave Britain's Chancellor John Healey an opportunity to present his views.
He said that Britain's actual economic growth figures have consistently been better than expected. The growth so far in the year 2026 can be called strong.
Healy told me that he sees these figures as the first sign that investment in AI and technology is beginning to boost Britain's economic growth.
Big bond market investors attending IMF meetings are also seen looking at Britain from a new perspective after several years of crisis.
But apart from geopolitical instability and uncertainty regarding the bond market, a third big challenge also lies ahead.
This challenge was also visible on the streets of Bangkok, where drivers were carrying bankers and finance ministers for this week's meeting.
Like other countries, Thailand has also directly felt the tremendous increase in sales of electric vehicles in China.
Thailand is sometimes called the 'Detroit of Asia' because of its strong heritage in automobile manufacturing. But now almost one-third of the vehicles sold there are Chinese electric vehicles.
This is being called 'China Shock Two' i.e. the second big shock from China. The clearest example of this is China's rapid dominance in advanced manufacturing.
The first such shock from China was seen in the year 2000. At that time China had made its place in basic manufacturing.
Why is the world worried?
Due to this second big wave of change, in the last few months there has been a fresh rethink about how the world's trade is running and how it will be handled going forward.
There is special concern about this in the European Union. It is trying to rethink its policies regarding trade between China and Europe, because currently this trade seems like a one-way street.
The rules that the European Union is preparing to provide additional protection to 'Made in Europe' products will also have a deep impact on Britain.
If Britain stays out of these new rules, then China can send more cars to Britain than it needs. Like Thailand, import duties in Britain too are low at present and subsidies are also available.
The second possibility is that the EU invites Britain to join these rules. But instead it can ask Britain to increase its import duty to match that of the European Union.
Along with this, a different story is also going on in the relations between Britain and the European Union.
This week, this relationship was discussed more than expected in Bangkok. It also provided some entertainment to the people present at the meeting.
'Flirt' with the EU
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva laughed out loud when she said that "the two divorced people who separated after Brexit are now dating each other."
Finland's finance minister told me Britain is "flirting" with the EU.
Big banks were also issuing reports on the possibility of Britain's return to the European Union. They are calling this possible comeback 'Britain'.
However, the biggest hope is being placed on the rise in AI to bring the world economy out of this era of multiple crises going on simultaneously.
It is expected that AI will work like a trampoline with the help of which the world economy will be able to bounce out of these crises.
Many of these crises are related to President Trump's decisions.
But even regarding AI the picture is not completely clear.
In a room, the Finance Minister praises the big changes coming in the economy due to AI.
In the next room, central bank officials are seen worried about the fact that AI has the power to break the cyber security of most parts of the banking system.
