Willingness to buy durable goods hits 17-year low; stock market investment confidence remains high

Consumer confidence weakens! The Taiwan Economic Development Research Center of National Central University announced on the 27th that the overall consumer confidence index (CCI) in October was 66.27 points, down 2.5 points from September. Six sub-indicators showed "three increases and three decreases", among which "purchasing of durable goods in the next six months" had the largest decline. , fell 10.81 points to 82.97 points in a single month, and fell to the lowest level since 2009, reflecting that people’s willingness to buy large or high-unit-price commodities has significantly cooled down; in comparison, the "opportunity to invest in stocks in the next six months" rose slightly to 35.86 points, a new high in the past year.

A survey by Central University showed that among the six CCI sub-indicators in October, three increased and three decreased. Among the rising indicators, "Employment opportunities in the next six months" increased the most by 1 point, reaching 77.7 points; "Price levels in the next six months" increased by 0.49 points to 37.54 points; "Opportunities to invest in stocks in the next six months" increased by 0.44 points to 35.86 points.

In terms of declining indicators, "Purchase of durable goods in the next six months" dropped from 93.78 points in September to 82.97 points, a single-month decrease of 10.81 points, the largest decline among the six indicators; followed by "domestic economic prosperity in the next six months", which dropped 4.33 points to 82.69 points; "household economic conditions in the next six months" fell 1.76 points to 80.88 points.

It is worth noting that buying confidence in durable goods fell sharply. As the price of memory rises, some electronic terminal products are facing cost and selling price adjustment pressures, which may affect consumers' purchasing decisions; while the housing market is still waiting to recover, the public's purchasing attitude towards home appliances, furniture and other high-unit-price commodities is also worthy of attention. According to the historical trends of relevant indicators, purchasing confidence in durable goods has dropped to its lowest level since 2009, reflecting that the momentum of consumer spending is facing a test. In addition, the "timing to buy real estate" indicator dropped sharply by 8.2 points from the previous month, indicating that people's views on the timing of real estate purchases have become more conservative, and the survey showed a pessimistic attitude.

Investment confidence showed a different trend. "The timing of investing in stocks in the next six months" rose to 35.86 points in October, a new high in nearly a year, indicating that people's views on the timing of investing in the stock market have improved slightly. However, this indicator is still at a relatively low level. Compared with the simultaneous weakening of purchasing confidence in durable goods, it is not enough to represent an improvement in overall consumer confidence.

The October Consumer Confidence Index survey period was from October 18 to 21. A total of 3,162 people over the age of 20 in Taiwan were interviewed through telephone interviews and computer random sampling. At a 95% confidence level, the sampling error was plus or minus 2 percentage points.