
中央大學大氣科學系兼任副教授吳德榮指出,明天至下週日北部、東半部將轉雨,下週一、週二北台灣轉涼且氣溫明顯下降;第26號輕颱彩雲今天凌晨在關島東北方海面生成,預計將發展為大型颱風並朝日本東南方海面前進,不會侵台。
AI-generated summary
吳德榮為中央大學大氣科學系兼任副教授,經常在氣象應用推廣基金會的「洩天機教室」專欄提供天氣分析。
中央大學大氣科學系兼任副教授吳德榮指出,明天至下週日(2日至4日)北部、東半部轉雨;下週一、週二(5日、6日)北台灣轉涼、氣溫明顯下降;第26號輕颱彩雲今天(1日)凌晨生成,預計不會侵台。
吳德榮今天在氣象應用推廣基金會的「洩天機教室」專欄表示,最新(9月30日20時)歐洲(ECMWF)模式模擬顯示,今天各地晴時多雲,山區午後偶有局部短暫降雨,各地白天仍偏熱、早晚偏涼。中南部最高氣溫仍在36度左右,中午前後應慎防紫外線,達過量及危險級。
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吳德榮指出,最新模式模擬顯示,明天至下週日水氣增多,北部、東半部有局部短暫雨,山區午後亦有局部短暫降雨,北部山區及東北部有較大雨勢;氣溫小幅下降,中南部白天仍偏熱、各地早晚略偏涼。
吳德榮稱,最新模式模擬顯示,下週一、週二東北季風增強,氣溫明顯下降,北台灣轉涼;下週一迎風面轉有雨,下週二水氣漸減,迎風面降雨漸減少。
下週三(7日)各地天氣好轉,清晨氣溫偏低,日夜溫差大;山區午後及東半部偶有局部短暫降雨。
吳德榮分析,最新(1日2時)氣象署「路徑潛勢預測圖」顯示,第26號輕颱彩雲在關島東北方海面,未來大致有轉北的趨勢,朝日本東南方海面前進,強度將增強,範圍持續擴大。
吳德榮說,最新歐洲模式系集模擬顯示,彩雲將發展為大型颱風,模擬路徑大致以偏北機率最高,無侵台機率,但模式將繼續調整,具不確定性,應持續觀察。
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
明天至下週日北部、東半部將有局部短暫雨,山區午後亦有局部短暫降雨
Likely · Within days
下週一、週二北台灣將轉涼且氣溫明顯下降
Likely · Within days
第26號輕颱彩雲將發展為大型颱風並朝日本東南方海面前進,不會侵台
Likely · Within days

The Central Meteorological Administration predicts that today will be sunny to cloudy in various places, with scattered brief showers in the south and mountainous areas in the afternoon. The northeast monsoon will strengthen tomorrow, with showers and localized heavy rains in the northeast, and localized short-lived showers in greater Taipei. The northeast monsoon weakened on Saturday but there was still moisture on the windward side. The weather was relatively stable on Sunday, with only localized brief showers on the windward side and in the southern mountainous areas in the afternoon. Another wave of northeast monsoon will strengthen next Monday. This year's No. 26 typhoon "Caiyun" has formed at 2 a.m. today, with a central pressure of 998 hPa. It will move towards Japan and will have no impact on Taiwan's weather.

During the National Day holiday, most areas across the country have good weather conditions and are suitable for travel. It will be mainly sunny to cloudy in the north, and there will be precipitation in North and Northeast China; it will rain first and then become clear in the south, and the rain will be stronger in the southwest. The meteorological department reminded that urban traffic pressure in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hunan and other places will be severe. There will be heavy to heavy rains in Fujian, Hunan, Chongqing, Guizhou and other places, and some highways will be slippery and prone to water accumulation. The two waves of cold air relay influence, the coolness in the north becomes more intense, and the heat in the south subsides. In the second half of the Yangtze River, the temperature drops to about 15℃ in the morning and evening.

Jia Xingxing, director of Taiwan Integrated Disaster Prevention Engineering Technology Consulting Company, said that starting from tomorrow, there will be a two-stage cooling, especially in the second wave of low temperatures in the open areas in the north, which will drop to around 18 degrees. The northeast monsoon has been reported, and there will be rainfall on the north coast, northeastern corner, and Yilan. Typhoon Caiyun has formed in the early hours of this morning, and a cross-border hurricane NOLO will also move into the central Pacific.

Typhoon No. 26 "Caiyun" was generated on the 1st. It is expected to develop into a strong and wide-circulation system. However, it will not directly affect Taiwan as it moves northward. Instead, it will indirectly promote the northeast monsoon that will last for a long time near Taiwan next week. The northern and eastern half will be significantly cooler. Rainfall will be concentrated on the north coast, the northeastern corner, Yilan and other places. The daytime high temperature in Taipei after next Monday is expected to remain at 25-30 degrees, and the nighttime low temperature will be 20-25 degrees.

On the first day of the National Day holiday, the cold air continues to move eastward and southward, and many places in the south will join the cooling process. From October 3rd to 4th, a new wave of cold air will move southward, and temperatures in many places in the north and south will hit record lows in the second half of this year. The rainfall in the south is relatively large, and some areas in the southwest need to be prepared for secondary disasters.

The Central Meteorological Administration predicts that the arrival of the northeast monsoon originally scheduled for October 1 will be postponed by one day, and rain will turn to the north and northeast from Friday. Wang Pinxiang, a forecaster from the Meteorological Administration, said that during the northeast monsoon, the temperature will drop below 30 degrees, about 27 to 28 degrees during the day, and about 24 degrees at night. He also predicted that there will still be some short-lived showers on the north coast of Keelung, the eastern half and the Hengchun Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday.