A statement quoting Bangladesh Foreign Affairs Advisor Humayun Kabir is being discussed a lot in the Indian media.
It is being reported since Thursday night that Humayun Kabir, a close aide of Bangladesh Prime Minister Tariq Rahman, told Bangladesh Sangbad Sanstha (BSS) that Bangladesh is positive about the possibility of joining any economic or defense structure related to Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey.
This comment of Humayun Kabir is being seen in the Indian media as that Bangladesh is willing to join the Mecca Agreement between Saudi, Pakistan and Turkey.
It is being said that this stand of Bangladesh has added another new dimension to the ongoing tension with India.
Humayun Kabir said that the Bangladesh Prime Minister's visit to Riyadh on the invitation of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia will be finalized after the summer.
India's External Affairs Ministry said on Friday that it is closely monitoring the developments in West Asia.
On Friday, when Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal was asked about the news related to Bangladesh's desire to join the Mecca Defense Agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, he said, "We are keeping a close eye on the developments in West Asia. This is all I would like to say for now."
Many experts are looking at the Mecca Agreement against India. This agreement states that an attack on any one of the three countries will be considered against all three.
That means, if India takes any military action like Operation Sindoor against Pakistan, then Türkiye and Saudi Arabia can consider it against them.
If Bangladesh also comes into this, then there is a possibility of increasing Pakistan's presence in Dhaka.
Will the Mecca Agreement be in favor of Bangladesh?
If Bangladesh joins the Mecca Agreement, will it be in its favor?
Speaking to News18, former Bangladesh Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen said, “On paper, the Mecca Agreement can present a definite picture of multilateral cooperation between Muslim-majority countries. But if we look at the ground reality, what real and concrete benefits will Bangladesh get from this?
''Our national priorities focus on economic growth, trade, regional stability and maintaining balanced foreign relations besides non-alignment. If you engage in any collective defense framework, especially one that involves distant geopolitical circumstances and military commitments, the risks are immediate and clear. Bangladesh may be drawn into conflicts in which it is not intended to fight.
“Furthermore, our geographical and economic realities dictate that strong, stable and cooperative relations with our neighbours, especially India, matter,” Momen said. “Any action that upsets this balance or embroils us with foreign military groups is not in line with the core national interests of Bangladesh.”
“I believe such a major strategic change requires a careful and comprehensive assessment rather than a hasty commitment. Posturing should not replace the reality of foreign policy. Bangladesh has historically benefited from a policy of 'friendship to all, enmity to none'. “Moving towards military alliances or defense agreements that could affect regional stability could be counterproductive.”
''The proposals that are in front should be thoroughly examined and evaluated. “I hope the leadership will carefully consider its long-term consequences before taking any binding decisions.”
M Shahidul Islam, who was Bangladesh's ambassador to America, France and South Korea, also believes that this is not in favor of Bangladesh.
“Really, we need to weigh the costs and benefits of joining the corn deal,” he writes on X. “The costs are quite clear: Bangladesh may be drawn into conflicts that are not necessarily in line with its own national interests.”
However, its benefits are not yet clear. Since Saudi Arabia has a central role in this agreement, Bangladesh should naturally expect to benefit from more employment opportunities, more investment and better energy security abroad. Have we presented these expectations to Saudi Arabia?
Geopolitics and international affairs analyst Zorawar Dulat Singh, reposting Randhir Jaiswal's comment on Bangladesh's desire to join the Mecca Agreement, wrote on
"According to this view, Israel is a key center of American power expansion and military influence in the Eurasian rim. It is also being claimed that after the destruction of America's forward military bases in the Persian Gulf, Israel could become a possible site of the headquarters of the American Central Command in the future.
Why does Tariq Rehman have such a stance regarding India?
Strategic affairs analyst Brahma Chellaney believes that Tariq Rehman is adopting a dual approach.
Chellani writes on These include essential food items, refined petroleum and electricity. Therefore, stable relations with India are extremely important for the economic security and prosperity of Bangladesh.
"Despite this, Bangladesh's new Prime Minister Tariq Rahman has been dilly-dallying for the last six months in accepting Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invitation for a state visit to New Delhi, as if visiting India is doing India a favour."
''Going further, Rahman has also laid down conditions for such a visit. Last Monday, he told India's ambassador in Dhaka that India had to create a "conducive environment" before taking bilateral relations forward. His advisors have also stressed that relations between the two countries should be on the basis of equality.
''The irony is that Rahman has no problem pursuing a clearly unequal relationship with China. In June he visited Beijing, expressed his surrender to China and signed several agreements, which can be described as mainly one-sided.
However, Mohammad Humayun Kabir, former Bangladesh Ambassador to America, does not believe so. He says that Bangladesh has changed now.
Humayun Kabir wrote in an article in Bangladesh's leading English newspaper The Daily Star on August 16, "The public uprising of July 2024 has changed the aspirations of the people. Now Bangladeshis are more independent-minded, ambitious and more conscious of their aspirations. The elections that followed were widely considered fair and largely participatory, in which the BNP came to power with an overwhelming mandate.
Humayun Kabir writes, “These two domestic developments have had cross-border ramifications and have affected how Bangladesh views India, China, the US and other key partners. India naturally wants to understand what the thinking and priorities of the new government are. It would be best for India to talk to the Prime Minister on these questions, because ultimately he is the one who takes decisions. India will also have to understand that Bangladesh will not become anyone's subordinate or anyone's henchman.
'India should consider its policy'
India has invited Bangladesh Prime Minister Tariq Rahman to attend the outreach session of the upcoming BRICS summit. But Bangladesh has not yet confirmed whether Tariq Rahman will tour or not. The BRICS summit is to be held on 12–13 September in New Delhi.
Sheshadri Chari, editor of the English magazine Organiser, considered the mouthpiece of the RSS, has written in The Print on Tariq Rehman's stance, "Any practical leader would have taken advantage of this opportunity and tried his best to strengthen bilateral relations with India in the interest of his country."
''It is unfortunate that the Prime Minister of Bangladesh is reluctant to respond positively to India's invitation to visit New Delhi. Probably his advisors are preventing him from doing so, whose domestic and foreign policies are based on creating an anti-India narrative.
Sheshadri Chari has written, "As far as the 'Neighbourhood First' policy of the Narendra Modi government is concerned, realism has been replaced by idealism. Under this, a policy of giving concessions to neighboring countries was adopted despite the lack of mutual cooperation from them. Despite its inclination towards China in the case of Nepal and its inclination towards Pakistan apart from China in the case of Bangladesh, India showed readiness to accept their demands.
“This has resulted in a serious deterioration in the regional security architecture, posing significant risks to India's security on both land and sea fronts. At such a time, New Delhi should immediately change the direction of its foreign policy and recognize Dhaka's obstinate and stubborn attitude. The government should send a clear and strong message to Dhaka that India will not hand over Sheikh Hasina to a government that believes only in political vendetta.
