Iraqi Kurds' fears of the international coalition's withdrawal and the strengthening of Lebanese efforts for regional stability
Quick Look
As the US-led international coalition withdraws from Iraq by September 30, Kurdish citizens in the Iraqi Kurdistan region express their concern about losing protection from drone attacks, while Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam focuses in UN meetings on expanding economic and investment cooperation, strengthening relations with Syria, and preparing the post-UNIFIL phase in southern Lebanon.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The US-led international coalition withdrew from Syria earlier this year, and is scheduled to complete its withdrawal from Iraq by September 30 after ending its mission against ISIS, which controlled large areas of Iraq starting in 2014 and was defeated in 2017 with the support of the coalition.
As the date for the withdrawal of the “International Coalition” led by the United States approaches, more Kurdish citizens are expressing their concern about the loss of the protection provided by this “coalition” from the drone attacks that the autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan region is constantly exposed to, according to a report from “Agence France-Presse.”
In 2024, Baghdad and Washington reached an agreement to end the mission of the “coalition” against ISIS in Iraq, noting that the presence of these forces is currently limited to Erbil Airport.
The coalition forces are scheduled to complete their withdrawal from Iraq by September 30, after completing their mission against ISIS.
Sherzad Farhadi (47 years old), an electronics store owner in the old Erbil market, said: “There is no doubt that their withdrawal is extremely dangerous,” adding: “We cannot intercept missiles coming from Iran alone.”
Fears of drones
Over the years, the “coalition” forces shot down many drones loaded with explosives in the airspace of the Kurdistan region, some of which targeted military bases of the “coalition” or oil installations and other sites.
These attacks intensified during the war in the Middle East, which began with the United States and Israel’s attack on Iran on February 28 of last year.
The strikes were distributed between attacks announced by pro-Iranian Iraqi armed factions on American interests, and Iranian strikes on sites of the Iranian Kurdish armed opposition that have been stationed for years in northern Iraq, while buildings in the heart of Erbil were also targeted.
Hashim Saeed, a 62-year-old swimming pool seller, asked: “If the American forces were not here, would we have intercepted them?”, referring to the marches, stressing: “The weapons we have are unable to shoot them down.”
End of the "Alliance" mission
ISIS controlled large areas in northern and western Iraq starting in 2014, until Iraqi forces were able to defeat it in 2017, with the support of the “International Coalition” led by Washington.
And in Syria; As Kurdish forces defeated the organization in 2019, thousands of people suspected of belonging to extremist groups were detained with their families, including foreigners, in prisons and camps run by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) until January 2026. The coalition forces left Syria earlier this year.
After the defeat of ISIS, the existence of the “coalition” became a subject of dispute between the Iraqi authorities and the armed factions supported by Tehran.
Girvan Saeed (41 years old), an electronics seller in Erbil, saw that the withdrawal of the “coalition” robs the factions of the excuse to attack Kurdistan, saying: “This is the positive side.”
In Baghdad, the atmosphere seemed different; On crowded Karrada Street, Abdullah Al-Kanani said, “Sovereignty will not be fully achieved unless all foreign forces leave Iraqi territory.”
The Iraqi Prime Minister, Ali Al-Zaidi, had announced that October 1 would be celebrated; That is, the day after the “coalition” forces leave the country, as it is considered “sovereignty day.”
The issues of reform, economic openness, and security stability topped the list of priorities of Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s discussions in his discussions on the sidelines of the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly, where he discussed with Arab and international officials the expansion of economic and investment cooperation, regional connectivity, international pressure to achieve stability, and Israeli withdrawal from the south.
Salam announced that he focused in his meetings on “intensifying efforts to reduce escalation, sparing Lebanon and the region more confrontations, and strengthening Lebanon’s Arab, regional and international relations on the basis of respect for sovereignty, non-interference, and common interests,” and “expanding economic and investment cooperation and regional connectivity, especially in the fields of energy, electricity, transportation, and infrastructure, and benefiting from international expertise in modernizing administration and digitizing government services.”
He pointed out, “Continuing our work in Lebanon on reform, strengthening state institutions, and extending the state’s authority over its entire territory, restricting weapons, and making the decisions of war and peace in its hands alone,” stressing “the necessity of Israel’s complete withdrawal from Lebanese territory and stopping its attacks, in a way that contributes to establishing stability and the return of the people to their towns and villages.”
After UNIFIL
The “post-UNIFIL” phase occupied an aspect of the peace talks, and he pointed out “to work from now on preparing for the post-UNIFIL phase, and avoiding any vacuum in the south, through a formula that ensures a continued international presence that carries out the tasks of monitoring, informing, and communicating, under the umbrella of a resolution issued by the UN Security Council.” He pointed to “mobilizing support for the path of return, recovery, and reconstruction, in a way that contributes to restoring basic services, stabilizing the return of our people, and strengthening their steadfastness in the affected areas.”
Salam pointed out the importance of continuing an international presence in the south after the end of the UNIFIL mission, which contributes to maintaining stability, ensures the continuation of monitoring, reporting, and communication tasks, and supports the process of extending the authority of the Lebanese state over its entire territory.
Over the course of two days, Salam participated in the opening of the work of the United Nations General Assembly, and in the American multilateral summit alongside the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey. He also chaired the high-level meeting under the title “Beyond Crises,” which was held at the joint invitation of Lebanon, the European Union, and the United Nations Development Programme.
The meeting with the Sharia
During his stay in New York, Salam met a number of Arab and international officials, most notably Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Kuwaiti Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa. Salam said: “For some time now, we have been working to open a new page with our Syrian brothers, and to build relations between our two countries on trust, non-interference in internal affairs, and common interests.”
He added: “We discussed the necessity of completing the review of the agreements between the two countries, as a basis for the first meeting of the Lebanese-Syrian joint higher committee that we established in Beirut, so that this step does not remain a dead letter. God willing, if the meeting is not at the beginning of next month, it will be in the following month.
Salam continued: “We also discussed the importance of strengthening regional connectivity projects, especially in the fields of electricity, railways, and energy, because of their common interests for both countries.”
For his part, Al-Sharaa indicated after the Salam meeting that “the old legacy is difficult, and we are trying to establish new relations based on the economy and good political relations that in the future will affect the security situation,” stressing that “the concerns are the same between Lebanon and Syria, and the best relations must always bring us together.”
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The international coalition will complete its withdrawal from Iraq by September 30 as planned.
Very likely · Within days
Iraq will celebrate October 1 as Sovereignty Day after the coalition forces leave.
Very likely · Within weeks
The focus will continue on strengthening regional connectivity projects between Lebanon and Syria in the fields of electricity, railways and energy.
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- How will the Kurdistan Region deal with drone threats after the coalition withdraws?
- What are the alternative arrangements for monitoring southern Lebanon after the end of the UNIFIL mission?
- Will improvements in Lebanese-Syrian relations lead to tangible security and economic cooperation?
- How will tensions between Iraq and Iranian-backed armed factions affect national sovereignty?







