China News Service, September 6: "The prospect of reaching an agreement and achieving an armistice in the short term in the US-Iran conflict has once again become slim." The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) commented.
In the past few days, military confrontations between the United States and Iran have continued. On the 5th local time, the US military said it attacked three Iranian oil tankers that day. Iran said it responded by attacking multiple oil tankers and U.S. ships. Tensions between the two sides escalated again.
Analysis points out that the US-Iran war will continue to be in a chaotic and uncertain situation, and the prospects for peace are not optimistic.
The United States and Iran attack each other, and the situation changes again
On the 5th local time, the U.S. Central Command issued a statement saying that the U.S. military attacked three Iranian oil tankers that day in response to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacking two U.S. warships “patrolling in regional waters.”
The statement said that a U.S. aircraft carrier and a guided-missile destroyer evaded multiple Iranian attacks, and that missile attacks by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps did not cause any casualties in the U.S. military.
The statement also stated that the US military immediately attacked two Iranian oil tankers located in the waters near Iran's Khark Island and the southern port city of Jask, causing them to "permanently lose their navigation capabilities." In addition, the US military also launched an attack on an empty oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, damaging many key locations on the hull and "completely destroying" it.
Image source: Screenshot of video posted by U.S. Central Command on social media
On the other hand, the commander of the Navy of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement on the 5th that Iran attacked three U.S. ships and three oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz without authorization in response to the U.S. military’s attack on Iranian oil tankers earlier that day.
The statement warned that all ships near the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz "should not be deceived by the US military" and should avoid carrying out "suspicious operations" in any unauthorized routes, otherwise they will become targets.
The United States has yet to respond to the above statement.
A series of strikes have added further uncertainty to the situation between the United States and Iran. Rapallo, a reporter for Al Jazeera TV in Qatar, said that it is not clear at this stage how to promote the resumption of negotiations between the United States and Iran. The most pressing question right now is, is the conflict that occurred on the 5th just a limited attack on each other between the two countries, or is it the beginning of a new round of military conflict?
Faced with a dilemma, is restarting negotiations the way out for the United States?
The New York Times stated that as the on-and-off war between the United States and Iran escalates again, U.S. President Trump seems to be trapped in a conflict that he can neither control nor escape.
"The U.S. lacks both a battle plan and a plan to win or withdraw from this conflict is astounding," said Bartlett, a Republican strategist who served as a State Department official during Trump's first term as president.
Foreign policy experts say the latest round of military actions exposes an increasingly clear fact: Trump has few cards left to play in dealing with the conflict.
Campbell, a senior researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said, "We are still unable to clarify what the strategic goals of the United States are on the Iran issue." Previously, outsiders had believed that military means alone would be enough to win quickly, but facts have proved that this has not achieved the expected results.
He further said that now we see that the United States is using different means at the same time, including military and economic means. At present, "the US government seems to have accepted a kind of stalemate."
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) quoted analysts as saying that the United States and Iran continue to launch attacks on each other and continue to make tough remarks. The prospects for the two sides to resume negotiations in the near future are still unclear.
Despite this, many experts believe that military strikes and economic sanctions may not be enough to force Iran to surrender, and restarting ceasefire negotiations is still the most likely way for the United States to exit.
Tabriz, an associate fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, said the latest round of attacks would not really change Iran's judgment on the conflict. Iran is preparing for further economic squeeze and continued attacks.
According to Hopton, a distinguished fellow in international security at the Royal United Services Institute and former British ambassador to Iran, the White House’s real exit strategy is to restart the June ceasefire agreement.
Hopton said, "At present, this chaotic and unresolved situation between the United States and Iran is likely to continue, and this is not good news for everyone."
("International Knowledge Bureau" column)
