Political analysts believe that the recent Houthi attacks open a new phase in Saudi dealings with the Iran-backed group, entitled the transition from managing and containing the escalation to firmly deterring it, stressing that Riyadh will not accept targeting its citizens and residents on its territory or harming its vital facilities.
Analysts told Asharq Al-Awsat that this stage is witnessing an advanced level of political, military and security coordination between Saudi Arabia and the legitimate Yemeni government, which enhances its ability to confront the sources of the threat and redraw the balance of power on the ground.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan affirmed on Tuesday that his country will not hesitate to defend itself in the face of attacks by the terrorist Houthi militia, and will use all available means to protect its interests.
The Saudi Foreign Minister said during a press conference with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow that the Kingdom is offering diplomatic solutions to avoid the suffering of Yemen and its people, and will not hesitate to support what achieves its interests and the region, noting that the path for diplomacy to deal with the Houthis is open.
Prince Faisal bin Farhan added that the Houthis prefer to advance their narrow personal interests over the interests of Yemen, and the Yemeni legitimate government has provided the opportunity to negotiate with them responsibly, considering their recent escalation as part of the provocation they are pursuing.
The limits of Saudi patience
Dr. Abdul Aziz bin Saqr, head of the Gulf Research Centre, based in Jeddah, explained that the legitimate Yemeni government is carrying out its tasks in confronting the Houthi attacks targeting civilians and vital installations inside Yemen, noting that it has worked to mobilize its capabilities and capabilities and unify its ranks, especially at the military level.
Bin Saqr stressed that “the Kingdom will not accept any attacks targeting citizens and residents on its lands or vital installations, and that its patience has limits,” expecting Riyadh to respond “strongly and decisively to the sources of fire, and in proportion to the intensity of the attacks,” citing what happened recently in Iraq.
He added that the Houthis misunderstood Saudi patience. “Because they do not resort to reason and logic, and they are still receiving instructions,” he pointed out that the group was given several opportunities over the past years, but it did not benefit from them.
A more assertive stage
For his part, Yemeni writer Saleh Al-Baydani believed that the recent developments indicate “a transition from the policy of managing and containing escalation to a more resolute stage in deterring it.”
Al-Baydani told Asharq Al-Awsat: “The Kingdom was given ample opportunities for calm and a political solution, but the Houthis misread this calm, and treated it as a permanent restriction on the Saudi movement, not a calculated political option that can be reviewed when the data changes.”
He added that the recent attacks on Saudi lands and facilities have raised the threat level to a point where it is difficult to continue the previous equation, explaining that “when Al-Houthi turns from a party in a Yemeni crisis into a regional pressure tool that is more clearly linked to Iran’s calculations and its conflict in the region, the way to deal with him will necessarily change.”
According to Al-Baydani, the escalation is no longer related to the Yemeni file alone, but rather affects Saudi national security, the security of the Red Sea, energy supplies, and the safety of international sea lanes.
Saudi-Yemeni coordination
The Yemeni writer pointed out that coordination between Saudi Arabia and the legitimate government has entered a different stage compared to previous years, whether at the political, military, or security levels.
He continued: “The Kingdom seems more aware of the importance of having a Yemeni partner capable of managing the confrontation on the ground, while the Yemeni government realizes that any serious move against the Houthis needs a regional umbrella and political, military and economic support.”
Al-Baidhani concluded that the success of the next stage remains dependent on the ability of the Yemeni side to unify military and political decisions, and transform the multiplicity of forces and fronts from a point of weakness into a source of pressure on the Houthis.
He added: “If this is achieved, we may not be facing a passing military tour, but rather an attempt to reshape the balance of power that has stabilized over the past years.”
On Tuesday, the Yemeni government forces expanded the scope of their field advance on a number of fronts, while being able to liberate the Al-Yatma area in the Khub Washaaf District of Al-Jawf Governorate (northeast of Sanaa), the day after the recapture of the Al-Labanat area in the same governorate, coinciding with the launch of a large military operation in Al-Bayda Governorate (southeast of Sanaa) and the continuation of confrontations on the western coast and west of Taiz, on the sixth day since the start of the Houthi escalation.
This progress comes at a time when, over the past few days, government forces have begun to move from containing Houthi ground attacks to regaining the initiative on a number of fronts, taking advantage of the group's retreat in some locations, while the army, resistance, and Giants units continue their operations on more than one front.
The UN Special Envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, called on the parties to the conflict to cease hostilities and exercise maximum restraint, sparking sharp criticism from the Yemeni government, which considered that dealing with the recent escalation, in isolation from its causes and field context, leads to unacceptable equality between state institutions and the armed Houthi group.
Grundberg said, in a statement regarding the recent escalation, that the attacks launched by the Houthi group on several fronts led to an escalation in the intensity of the clashes, warning of the expansion of the scope of the conflict, and expressing his concern about the deaths of civilians, the displacement of families, and damage to civilian infrastructure.
The UN envoy called on all parties to cease hostilities, exercise restraint, and take advantage of existing channels, including the UN Military Coordination Committee, to prevent further escalation, while stressing the need to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure.
The Minister of Legal Affairs in the Yemeni government, Ishraq Al-Maqtari, said that “the legal status of the situation in Yemen is clear,” and that, according to her, it is not possible to equate the legitimate state institutions with an armed group that “forcedly seized the capital, the state institutions, and its weapons.”
Ishraq Al-Maqtari said that Security Council Resolution No. 2201 of 2015 explicitly condemned the Houthis’ seizure of state institutions, and demanded that they withdraw from the institutions, including those of the capital, Sana’a, and hand over the weapons they seized from the military and security institutions.
She pointed out that Resolution 2216, issued in the same year under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter, called on the Houthis to immediately and unconditionally withdraw from the areas they had seized, hand over weapons, stop actions falling within the jurisdiction of the legitimate government, release detainees and end the recruitment of children.
She stressed that these international commitments “still exist,” and have not been canceled or modified, considering that they are not merely negotiating proposals, and that the mandate of the UN envoy is based on Security Council resolutions, and does not authorize him - according to her words - to re-characterize the coup as a legitimate situation that must be confirmed.
She added that any call to stop military operations without explicitly demanding that the Houthis end the coup, withdraw from the areas they seized, and hand over the state’s weapons: “practically turns into a call to freeze the illegal situation,” as she put it.
Al-Eryani wonders
For his part, the Yemeni Minister of Information, Muammar Al-Eryani, said that the UN envoy’s statement raises “a number of legitimate questions,” wondering about Grundberg’s position during the past weeks, when the Houthi group was bombing cities, residential neighborhoods, and civilian facilities with ballistic missiles and drones, and targeting - according to the government - areas in Marib, Taiz, Mokha, and Hadramaut.
Al-Eryani said that the Houthis sent reinforcements to several fronts, including Taiz, in an attempt to strangle the governorate and cut off the lifeline to its residents, in conjunction with the escalation on the west coast, and seeking to reach the Bab al-Mandab Strait, turning it into a pressure card and a threat to international navigation.
The minister wondered about the usefulness of calls for restraint and a cessation of hostilities, when the group - according to the government's narrative - is the party that initiates the attack, mobilizes its forces, bombs cities, and threatens shipping lines.
Al-Eryani refused to portray the escalation as if it had begun with the movement of government forces, saying that the state “did not start this confrontation,” and that the armed forces were forced to perform their duty to protect citizens, defend liberated cities and areas, and stop Houthi attacks.
The Yemeni minister called on the UN envoy to identify the party that started the escalation, and not to put the state, its institutions, and its armed forces on the same page as an armed coup group. He called for putting real pressure on the Houthis, to stop their attacks, withdraw their crowds, lift the siege on cities, and release detainees, including United Nations employees and the envoy’s office.
