Japanese scholar Ogasawara Yoshiyuki, who is known as the "God of Elections," previously said that "Chiang Wanan's re-election is almost a foregone conclusion." However, he recently pointed out that there have been major changes in the election situation, believing that Shen Boyang has caught up with the "ocean current". When Ogasawara previously predicted that "Taipei has no suspense", former legislator Lin Zhuoshui once wrote that after the release of polls from major institutions, Professor Ogasawara "may have to adjust his views."
In an interview in September this year, Ogasawara Yoshiyuki said that there is almost no suspense about Taipei Mayor Chiang Wanan's re-election. If the Democratic Progressive Party candidate Shen Boyang gets more than 45% of the vote, he will be close to a substantial victory. He believes that the key to 2026 lies in New Taipei City. At that time, Lin Zhuoshui wrote that Professor Ogasawara may have underestimated the synergistic effect of major changes in international geopolitics and the emergence of novel "ocean currents". He bluntly stated that Professor Ogasawara "may have to adjust his views" as soon as the polls of major institutions are released that month.
Lin Zhuoshui posted on Facebook at the time that Professor Ogasawara may have underestimated two things: The first is that "the major changes in the international economic and geopolitical landscape have strongly shaken Taiwan's internal economic and political situation. You can recall the 2014 election that completely flipped Taiwan's blue-green political landscape. The second is the emergence of "breakthrough, creative, and novel ocean currents, recall the "Korean Wave" in 2018. Lin Zhuoshui believes that the additive effect of the two cannot be underestimated.
At that time, Lin Zhuoshui shouted: "As soon as possible, after the polls of Dai Li'an, Zhen Media, and Formosa are released one by one this month, 'I'm afraid the professor will have to adjust his views.'"
Unexpectedly, Lin Zhuoshui's prediction was indeed successful. Ogasawara Yoshiyuki wrote an article today that when he was interviewed at the time, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wanan of the Kuomintang, who was almost certain to be re-elected, had undergone major changes in the recent election, and the Democratic Progressive Party candidate Shen Boyang quickly accumulated momentum by relying on the "ocean current". He believes that Shen Boyang may have broken through the DPP's past vote ceiling in Taipei City, turning the originally one-sided election into a close and fierce competition. Whether Shen Boyang can overtake him at the last moment, or whether Jiang Wanan can replicate the experience of the KMT in reversing the election in 2010, will be the key to the last month before the election.
The People's Association released the second Taipei mayoral election poll on October 20. Polling expert Dai Li'an was responsible for questionnaire design and analysis, and Beacon Market Research Company conducted telephone interviews. The survey period was from October 14 to October 16. The survey subjects were people registered in Taipei City and over the age of 20. 1,075 people were successfully interviewed (753 by residential phone, 322 by mobile phone), and the maximum sampling error was ±3.0%.
Earthquake Media's 10/22 Taipei Mayoral Poll was funded by Earthquake Media and commissioned by Shanshui Public Opinion Research Co., Ltd. to conduct the survey. The survey period is from October 18 to October 19, 2026. The survey targets people registered in Taipei City and over 20 years old, and conducts telephone interviews through CATI [Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing System]. [Household] The sampling structure is based on residential phone users in the visited area; phone numbers are randomly selected through systematic sampling followed by 2 digits at the end. The weighting method is based on the demographic data of the Ministry of Interior and is weighted by region, gender, age group, and education level to conform to the parent structure. 1,074 people were successfully interviewed. At the 95% confidence level, the sampling error is approximately ±2.99 percentage points.
