The first batch of 2 of the 66 F-16V Block 70 fighter jets purchased by my country from the United States landed at Taitung Zhihang Base at noon today (2nd). The F-16V BLK70 single-seat fighter aircraft number 6727 was previously flying in the United States. (Photographed by Jake Woodward, this newspaper was authorized by IDF and the country’s moderator)
[Reporter Fang Weili/Taipei Report] The first batch of 2 of the 66 F-16V Block 70 fighter jets my country has purchased from the United States is expected to land at Taitung Zhihang Base at noon today (2nd). Su Ziyun, director of the Institute of Defense Strategy and Resources at the National Defense Security Research Institute, said in an interview that the arrival of the new aircraft in Taiwan has a high symbolic significance. The previous stay in Hawaii was mainly due to technical issues; at the strategic level, the US policy towards Taiwan has not changed, and some equipment is still given priority to Taiwan. However, he emphasized that the international situation is changing rapidly, and Taiwan still needs to accelerate its national defense independence. In the future, its military strength planning can develop towards the "June 4 ratio" of domestic production and outsourcing.
The first batch of two new aircraft were stranded for more than a month after arriving in Hawaii in August. There are different opinions from the outside world, including the discovery of minor problems, the need to wait for Lockheed Martin (Lockheed Martin) original factory personnel to go to Hawaii for adjustment, and poor weather. Some people also speculated that it was related to the Trump-Xi meeting. Su Ziyun was interviewed today and believed that the possibility of technical problems is relatively high, and those minor problems should have been adjusted by now.
He pointed out that another possible reason is that U.S. President Trump expressed his intention to take action against Iran at the time, and many aerial tankers were therefore transferred to the Middle East for support, which may also cause the delay of the F-16's arrival in Taiwan. Now that the new aircraft has arrived in Taiwan before the National Day as previously expected, he also hopes that subsequent delivery will go smoothly.
At the strategic level, Su Ziyun pointed out that the outside world was previously worried that Trump and Xi would affect the U.S. policy toward Taiwan, but U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue and even Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson have stated that the U.S. policy toward Taiwan has not changed, and this general direction can be affirmed.
As for when arms sales to Taiwan will be announced, he said that Trump signed Executive Order 14383 in February this year, prioritizing the needs of the United States, which will indeed become a technical variable. However, Michael Miller, director of the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), publicly stated at a congressional hearing in March this year that Taiwan has priority in some weapons. For example, Harpoon missiles have a higher priority than Saudi Arabia, which is also in line with the executive order. For example, he said that the priority for the delivery of F-16 aircraft has also been increased, and the delivery schedule for the second batch of F-16 aircraft purchased by Bulgaria has been postponed to 2030.
Su Ziyun also pointed out that the F-16V Block 70 purchase project has indeed been delayed for about 2 years. The sale to Taiwan was announced in 2019 during Trump's first term, and a special budget was compiled under the "Fengxiang Project" in 2020. Deliveries were originally scheduled to begin in 2024 and be fully delivered in 2026, but were delayed due to factors such as the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain and the relocation of the production line from Fort Worth, Texas to Greenville, South Carolina.
The U.S. has also compensated for this. Su Ziyun pointed out that Lockheed Martin has worked overtime in production and has prioritized Taiwan. He also quoted Defense Minister Gu Lixiong as saying that the U.S. may provide three types of non-cash compensation, including extending the warranty, "just like a car, from 100,000 kilometers in 2 years to 200,000 kilometers in 5 years," adding backup components, and expanding logistical support and upgrade services.
Su Ziyun believes that these two years are still within the buffer period planned by the national army. "Arms purchase is not like drive-thru or buying hamburgers." The national army adopts a "ten-year army-building concept and a five-year force reconstruction plan" to plan its military strength. There is flexibility in the middle, so delays are not a big problem.
However, he emphasized that Taiwan still needs to accelerate its national defense independence. He said that the international situation is changing rapidly. Although the U.S. policy towards Taiwan is stable, there is no guarantee that other emergencies at the tactical level will not occur and must be taken precautions in advance. Taiwan has a certain foundation for national defense independence. In the future, its military strength can be restructured using a "six-to-four ratio", that is, more than 60% of Taiwan's own R&D and production and 40% of external procurement. "I think this will be healthier."
As for the F-16 Maintenance Center (MRO) in Taiwan, Su Ziyun said that it is to enhance the maintenance capacity in Taiwan and is at the repair and maintenance level. The national defense independence talks about future force planning, which can adopt a "64 ratio", that is, more than 60% will be developed and produced by Taiwan itself and 40% will be purchased from outside. "I think this will be healthier."
Regarding the choice between drones and traditional platforms, Su Ziyun believes that this is a matter of combat power combination, and the two are not "zero and one" replacements for each other. He explained that warships and military aircraft are responsible for normal patrols and response to gray zone intrusions in peacetime, while drones are powerful weapons in wartime. It is difficult to use unmanned boats to intercept Chinese coast guard ships or large warships in peacetime, and they still have to rely on traditional carriers.
The same is true in the air. Su Ziyun said that the CCP's J-16 has a cruising speed of more than 900 kilometers per hour, while the speed of drones is usually only 200 to 400 kilometers per hour. Unless it is a large jet drone, it cannot keep up with the cruising speed of general carriers. Unmanned wingmen can also play their greatest role only in wartime. It is impossible to shoot down Chinese military aircraft approaching Taiwan in peacetime, and they still have to rely on traditional carriers to launch monitoring.
He also affirmed that the Chinese Academy of Sciences has begun to develop unmanned wingmen on its own, thinking it is a good start, and hopes that support from society and the government can accelerate the promotion.
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